23116_FOC Centralized Content_Demographer_Report_v3[55]

So, while the population of the UK ~67million has grown year-on-year since 1982, more recently we have seen falling birth rates start to drag on the growth rate. The Total Fertility rate is as low as it has ever been; however, this has been offset by an increasing age at death. Over the past 50 years, the reason that average age has been increasing has shifted from our ability to cure communicable diseases, towards the development of more effective later life extension. New innovations in this area present upside scenarios to population growth.

Taking both elements into account, the natural growth rate is positive at a rate of ~100,000 pa – albeit the impact of the pandemic saw 2020 saw the number of deaths exceed the number of births for the first time since 1976.

UK BIRTHS, DEATHS, AND NATURAL CHANGE, 1900 TO 2020

Births, Deaths

Natural Change

700K

1.2M

600K

1M

500K

800K

400K

300K

600K

200K

400K

100K

200K

0

-100K

0

1925

1905

1965

1985

2005

1945

Given modern building typologies, relatively low existing densities and constraints on how we use our land – and indeed the environmental impacts of new development - it is likely that population growth will be disproportionately absorbed through increased density, rather than urban extension.

In combination with positive net immigration, the population in the UK is growing at a broadly even rate of 0.4% pa. If this continues to 2040, then the population will be ~8% higher; an additional ~5.5 million people. For context, if this was to be directed in a single place it would be equivalent to a new city the size of Barcelona. Assuming a pro-rata dispersal across UK cities, then this would be equivalent of adding London’s two most populous boroughs (Barnet and Croydon) again to the population of London as it was at the end of 2020.

CITY SHAPER DEMOGRAPHERS

3 Cushman & Wakefield | Future of Cities |