23116_FOC Centralized Content_Demographer_Report_v3[55]

Looking forward, absent of black swan events, (see Public Health below), the natural growth rate should continue over the assessment period albeit at a softened rate. After that, things become more uncertain, with commentators increasingly expecting a shift to negative growth, aligning with a number of advanced economies – and as a result of slowing growth globally. This could lead to a peak UK population of say 75m during the mid-2040s, reducing thereafter, which would have significant implications for our economy, innovation, society and demand for real estate. The UK will need to adapt its housing and funding of the increased ageing population. By the end of the assessment period, economic obsolescence and not population growth will likely be a bigger driver of development and regeneration. Takeaways » An easing and outlying potential for reversal of population growth over the subject period. » Ageing of population and an increase in the very old. » Immigration to continue to drive growth and demographic change in the short term even if there are reduced numbers. » Lower ratios of workers to pensioners will weigh on economic growth. » Economic obsolescence will overtake population growth as the driver of development. » Growth will impact density more than footprint of UK cities.

Black Swan Risks » Growth will impact density more than footprint of UK cities. » New pandemic / variant with high mortality. » Extreme event (Nuclear War / Asteroid Impact). » Antibiotic Failure. » Increased rise of infertility.

CITY SHAPER DEMOGRAPHERS

5 Cushman & Wakefield | Future of Cities |