23116_FOC Centralized Content_Demographer_Report_v3[55]

What might change?

There are likely to be two weights which not only act as a drag on population growth, but further increase the age of the UK’s population

» Births – In 1974, the average age of a first-time mother was 26, in 2021 it was 31; with the average age of first-time fathers similarly increasing to 34. The Total Fertility rate has also decreased to its lowest ever – now estimated to be 1.55 children per woman, and the General Fertility rate down 54.1 births per 1,000 women.

» Changes to immigration rules - As a result of Brexit will limit the inward migration levels into the UK, and potentially have an upward pressure on emigration. The Government’s projections are of a long term net migration of +205,000, down from ~250,000 – even if we are currently a long way from those figures. Migrants tend to be younger and attracted to the UK for work or education.

These two elements will create an increased rate of ageing growth, and a slowing rate of population growth. It will also fundamentally alter the make-up of the UK’s population, and its ability to contribute to economic growth. Increased immigration will unlikely be the panacea that it once was, with global fertility rates decreasing, the universal talent pool will shrink.

POPULATION BY AGE

30%

84%

82%

25%

80%

20%

78%

76%

15%

74%

72%

10%

70%

5%

68%

66%

0%

1981

1987

1993

1999

2005

2011

2017

2023

2029

2035

Age 15-64 (lhs) Age 65+ (rhs)

Source: Moody’s

CITY SHAPER DEMOGRAPHERS

4 Cushman & Wakefield | Future of Cities |