C&W Industrial Insider Year-End Report_Q4-2018
Industrial Insider
Y E A R - E N D R E P O R T | Q 4 2 0 1 8
Kurt Griffin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9818 kurt.griffin@cushwake.com
Nathan Orbin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9819 nathan.orbin@cushwake.com
Ann Jaggars Analyst +1 972 663 9775 ann.jaggars@cushwake.com
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
2
Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Table of Contents
4
Year-End Update
6
Dallas Market Overview
18
Allen/McKinney
22
Alliance/North Fort Worth
28
Brookhollow/Trinity
32
DFW Airport
38
East Fort Worth
42
Far North/I-35
46
Garland/Mesquite
52
Great Southwest
58
North Dallas/Metropolitan
62
Pinnacle/Turnpike
66
Redbird
70
Richardson/Plano
74
South Dallas
80
South Fort Worth
84
Valwood/N Stemmons
88
Walnut Hill/Stemmons
Q4 2018
3
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
75
380
380
35
35E
380
35W
ALLEN/MCKINNEY
287
FAR NORTH I-35
75
35E
121
114
RICHARDSON/PLANO
VALWOOD/ STEMMONS
114
35W
NORTH DALLAS/ METROPOLITAN
35E
121
75
287
ALLIANCE
635
GARLAND
DFW AIRPORT
114
635
WALNUT HILL/ STEMMONS
360
635
114
121
12
NORTH FORT WORTH
12
35E
30
199
183
183
CENTRAL DALLAS
BROOKHOLLOW/ TRINITY
820
75
820
EAST FORT WORTH
35W
80
PINNACLE/ TURNPIKE
121
WEST FORT WORTH
360
30
MESQUITE
CENTRAL FORT WORTH
30
12
35E
30
GREAT SOUTHWEST
20
45
30
12
820
175
287
20
12
20
REDBIRD
20
820
20
20
67
35E
175
20
SOUTH DALLAS
287
377
45
360
35W
SOUTH FORT WORTH
67
35E
FOR THE FOURTH STRAIGHT YEAR AND THE ONLY FOUR YEARS IN ITS HISTROY, THE DFW INDUSTRIAL MARKET EXCEEDED 20 MSF IN NET ABSORPTION
4 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Year-End Update
Welcome back to our Industrial Insider report. We hope this holiday season finds everyone well. Our team is excited to present the latest update on the Dallas/Fort Worth industrial market with our Industrial Insider – 2018 Year- End Report. In this report, we summarize the performance of the DFW industrial market in 2018 and inform you on what can be expected for 2019. As the year comes to a close, we have tracked 22.9 MSF of overall net absorption for the greater DFW industrial market, marking its fourth straight year exceeding 20 MSF. Construction activity remained elevated with year-end completions reaching 26.9 MSF and an additional
21.7 MSF currently under construction. Overall vacancy increased by 60 bps year-over-year (7.1%), but still remains well below the 15-year historical average (9.2%) despite record-high levels of new supply. Looking ahead for 2019, we believe the DFW market will continue to see robust activity. Year-end active tenant requirements look strong at 23.4 MSF, especially compared to 2017’s 17.7 MSF. We hope you find this special Year-End Update edition of our Industrial Insider informative. The year-end numbers for 2018 make us optimistic for the year ahead, as our market continues to break records with strong growth. Wishing everyone a great finish to 2018 and a very Happy New Year.
30
ROCKWALL
Kurt Griffin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9818 kurt.griffin@cushwake.com
Nathan Orbin, SIOR Executive Managing Director +1 972 663 9819 nathan.orbin@cushwake.com
Ann Jaggars Analyst +1 972 663 9775 ann.jaggars@cushwake.com
Q4 2018
5
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
6 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
DFW Overview
Q4 2018
7
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
DFW Overview
The story remains the same for Dallas- Fort Worth’s industrial market at the end of 2018. The enthusiastic interest and focus DFW has seen from tenants, developers and investors continued, even heightening throughout 2018. The thriving DFW economy along with persisting population and employment growth remain essential contributors to the industrial market. At year-end, strong industrial demand throughout the DFW market prevails, as seen by the 22.9 MSF of net absorption for the year and 23.4 MSF of active tenant requirements.
industrial market has sustained an overall vacancy (7.1%) beneath its 15- year historical average (9.2%). Great Southwest continues to be the hottest submarket in DFW. It accounted for 43% of the overall market’s net absorption with 9.7 MSF. GSW’s level of market activity was followed by South Dallas, with its record-breaking 6.4 MSF of net absorption. Looking ahead, we don’t see any signs of a slowdown in the Dallas-Fort Worth industrial market. Our team remains very optimistic as DFW is well positioned to see elevated demand and activity throughout 2019.
DFW INDUSTRIAL SUBMARKET LEADERS AT YEAR- END ARE GREAT SOUTHWEST, SOUTH DALLAS, DFW AIRPORT & NORTH FW/ALLIANCE WITH NET ABSORPTIONS OF 9.7 MSF, 6.4 MSF, 2.8 MSF AND 2.3 MSF, RESPECTIVELY
Despite the delivery of nearly 27 MSF of new supply in 2018, the DFW
MARKET SUMMARY
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
614.9 616.9 619.0 626.4 643.5 663.1 684.3 713.5 741.3
Inventory (MSF) Overall Net Absorption (MSF) Overall Vacancy
2.9 12.5 12.1
17.4 15.6 20.2 23.7 25.9 22.9
12.1% 10.4% 8.7% 7.0% 7.1% 6.8% 6.0% 6.5% 7.1%
Completions (MSF)
1.5
2.0 2.1
7.4
17.1
19.6 21.2 29.2 26.9
Under Construction (MSF)
1.4
2.0 4.0 13.9 16.6 20.3 26.6 19.3 21.7
8 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
VACANCY
15-Year Historical Average = 9.2%
14.0%
15-YEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 9.2%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Q4 2010 Q4 2011
Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS / COMPLETIONS
NEW SUPPLY
5-YEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 18.9 MSF
Title
5-Year Historical Average = 18.9 MSF
35.0
35.0
30.0
30.0
25.0
25.0
20.0
20.0
15.0 Millions
15.0 Millions
10.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2010 2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
2018
DELIVERED
5-YEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGE
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
Q4 2018
9
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
10 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
DFW Overview
Overall Vacancy Rate
2018 Net Absorption
Under Construction
2018 Completions
Building Size (SF)
Inventory
Allen/McKinney
7,976,779
6.5%
147,478
30,954
455,722
Brookhollow/Trinity
48,802,343
1.9%
134,008
0
0
Central Dallas
14,424,995
2.6%
-10,325
0
0
DFW Airport
83,137,608
8.4%
2,840,268
3,819,540
3,824,961
Far North/I-35
18,656,892
4.5%
314,006
564,756
587,198
Garland
44,720,350
7.9%
294,337
249,097
789,400
Great Southwest
111,912,351
5.3%
9,743,093
4,664,683
4,989,173
Mesquite
18,518,620
10.1%
207,070
1,855,109
520,666
North Dallas/Metropolitan
19,367,912
6.9%
-441,725
0
0
Pinnacle/Turnpike
27,774,375
9.0%
-1,089,537
2,160,444
189,200
Redbird
22,284,459
2.6%
152,953
0
154,960
Richardson/Plano
36,456,549
6.7%
234,913
738,740
284,908
Rockwall
2,729,554
0.1%
0
650,000
0
South Dallas
53,922,486
20.4%
6,369,294
1,312,850
8,830,071
Valwood/N Stemmons
50,597,930
4.6%
591,408
803,445
235,900
Walnut Hill/Stemmons
22,165,365
2.4%
-23,069
389,234
0
DALLAS TOTAL
583,448,568
7.2%
19,464,172
17,238,852
20,862,159
Alliance
42,560,908
11.6%
1,583,364
2,487,055
3,987,073
Central Fort Worth
16,008,482
2.2%
-144,522
0
0
East Fort Worth
23,482,411
6.0%
67,826
64,800
0
North Fort Worth
44,291,372
5.1%
725,536
1,148,517
1,686,155
South Fort Worth
27,204,944
4.8%
1,067,497
754,585
308,061
West Fort Worth
4,344,345
9.7%
90,000
0
90,000
FORT WORTH TOTAL
157,892,462
6.7%
3,389,701
4,454,957
6,071,289
DFW TOTAL
741,341,030
7.1%
22,853,873
21,693,809
26,933,448
Q4 2018
11
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Supply Completed Construction
Completed Construction
317,446
355,121
3,275,964
FIRST GENERATION VACANCIES
2,538,468
10,130,106
705,929
2,267,582
1,602,265
235,900
84,948
189,200
Allen/McKinney Far North/I-35 Mesquite Pinnacle/Turnpike Redbird Walnut Hill/Stemmons
Alliance Garland N Stemmons/Valwood South Dallas East Ft. Worth
DFW Airport GSW
North Ft Worth South Ft Worth Richardson/Plano
12 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
SUM OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Completed Construction
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Allen/McKinney
317,446
317,446
Alliance
234,277
1,246,089
705,956
1,089,642
3,275,964
DFW Airport
559,449
978,435
1,000,584
2,538,468
Garland
326,970
378,959
705,929
GSW
683,658
1,583,924
2,267,582
N Stemmons/Valwood
235,900
235,900
North Ft Worth
804,874
632,670
164,721
1,602,265
Pinnacle/Turnpike
189,200
189,200
South Dallas
866,204
1,672,648
2,508,363
5,082,891
10,130,106
South Ft Worth
355,121
355,121
Richardson/Plano
84,948
84,948
GRAND TOTAL
4,302,926
6,847,846
3,379,040
7,173,117
21,702,929
COUNT OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Completed Construction
(VACANCY WITHIN RANGE)
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Allen/McKinney
2
2
Alliance
1
4
1
1
7
DFW Airport
5
3
1
9
Garland
2
1
3
GSW
7
8
15
N Stemmons/Valwood
1
1
North Ft Worth
4
2
1
7
Pinnacle/Turnpike
1
1
South Dallas
5
4
4
6
19
South Ft Worth
2
2
Richardson/Plano
1
1
GRAND TOTAL
29
24
6
8
67
Q4 2018
13
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Supply
Under Construction
439,833
500,555
389,234
620,685
1,208,044
345,280
UNDER CONSTRUCTION VACANCIES
1,281,714
249,166
1,347,738
1,123,517
832,979
151,176
Allen/McKinney Far North/I-35 Mesquite Pinnacle/Turnpike Redbird Walnut Hill/Stemmons
Alliance Garland N Stemmons/Valwood South Dallas East Ft. Worth
DFW Airport GSW
North Ft Worth South Ft Worth Richardson/Plano
14 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
SUM OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Under Construction
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Alliance
500,555
500,555
DFW Airport
449,166
573,534
185,344
1,208,044
Far North/I-35
345,280
345,280
Garland
249,166
249,166
GSW
545,066
802,672
1,347,738
Mesquite
248,890
584,089
832,979
N Stemmons/Valwood
151,176
151,176
North Ft Worth
100,029
1,023,488
1,123,517
Pinnacle/Turnpike
1,281,714
1,281,714
South Ft Worth
323,845
296,840
620,685
Walnut Hill/Stemmons
389,234
389,234
Richardson/Plano
439,833
439,833
GRAND TOTAL
3,241,685
1,673,046
2,551,702
1,023,488
8,489,921
COUNT OF AVAILABLE SPACE - Under Construction
(VACANCY WITHIN RANGE)
Building Size (SF)
100,000-249,999 250,000-499,999 500,000-749,999 750,000+
Grand Total
Alliance
1
1
DFW Airport
2
2
1
5
Far North/I-35
2
2
Garland
2
2
GSW
4
2
6
Mesquite
1
1
2
N Stemmons/Valwood
1
1
North Ft Worth
1
1
2
Pinnacle/Turnpike
2
2
South Ft Worth
2
1
3
Walnut Hill/Stemmons
2
2
Richardson/Plano
3
3
GRAND TOTAL
20
5
5
1
31
Q4 2018
15
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Demand
ACTIVE REQUIREMENTS TOTALING*
AVERAGE REQUIREMENT
23,445,000 SF 601,154 SF
*NOTE: 150,000 SF +
ESTIMATED OCCUPANCY TIMELINE
HISTORICAL REQUIREMENTS (SF)
Dec 2018
16 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
REQUIREMENTS BY SIZE
Size (SF)
Requirements
1,000,000 +
9
500,000 - 999,999
13
250,000 - 499,999
11
100,000 - 249,999
6
REQUIREMENTS BY BROKERAGE FIRM (SF)
REQUIREMENTS BY SUBMARKET (SF)*
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
16,000,000
*Requirements looking market wide will be included in multiple markets
Q4 2018
17
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
18 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Allen/McKinney
Q4 2018
19
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Allen/McKinney
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
• Located on the northeastern most edge of the DFW market surrounded by heavy residential population • Most new supply to this submarket comes from built-to-suit, shallow bay, and high-finish deals (flex space) • Low vacancy and positive overall absorption have motivated planning and ground breaking of several new speculative developments –– Hunt Southwest delivered a speculative 202K SF front-park, rear-load at I-75 and Wilmeth Road –– Dalfen delivered McKinney Fulfillment Center, a speculative 115K SF front-park, rear-load at the SEC of Redbud Blvd and Corporate Drive in McKinney –– Sentinel Capital broke ground on Phase I of McKinney National Business Park with two 75K SF rear-load speculative buildings just west of McKinney National Airport on FM 546 SELECT NEW DEVELOPMENTS:
75
380
ALLEN/MCKINNEY
ALLEN
75
MURPHY
RICHARDSON
75
30
635
MARKET SUMMARY
ND
30
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LAS
80
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.3
7.5
8.0
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
(224,973) 98,155
32,900 194,810 499,072 338,526 470,371 106,799 147,478
FORNEY
45
12
175
13.8% 16.3% 15.8% 13.8% 8.0% 3.1% 2.3% 3.4% 6.5% 20
Overall Vacancy
BALCH SPRINGS
20
108,000 305,000
0
66,000 117,261
0
423,927 198,000 455,722
Completions (MSF) HUTCHINS
175
Under Construction (MSF) 45
0
66,000 66,000 117,261
0
291,620 108,000 140,000 30,954
ANCASTER
WILMER
20 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
VACANCY
Historical Average = 6.5%
18.0%
16.0%
HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 6.5%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS / COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Millions
0.2
0.1
0.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q4 2018
21
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
22 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Alliance/ North Fort Worth
Q4 2018
23
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Alliance/North Fort Worth
The North Fort Worth and Alliance submarkets are situated along I-35W on the northwest edge of DFW. Both submarkets benefit from proximity to Alliance’s Global Logistics Hub, which includes the BNSF Railway Intermodal Terminal, Alliance Airport, and UPS and FedEx hubs. While Alliance has traditionally been a finite submarket mostly controlled by Hillwood, other developers are entering the area. There are currently at least ten other developers that have acquired or are actively pursuing developable land sites in Alliance. North Fort Worth is an infill submarket with few remaining large land parcels DENTON 35E 35
available for development. The submarket’s tenant base has a high percentage of rail users and light manufacturing. New supply delivered in 2018 for Alliance and North Fort Worth reached nearly 5.7 MSF, which topped historical record highs for deliveries in the submarkets combined. The activity from a supply standpoint has been met by high demand with over 15.5 MSF of net absorption since 2016. Both North Fort Worth and Alliance will continue to evolve and grow as a broader mix of developers begin to enter the area. 75
THERE ARE CURRENTLY AT LEAST TEN DEVELOPERS THAT HAVE ACQUIRED OR ARE ACTIVELY PURSUING DEVELOPABLE LAND SITES IN ALLIANCE 380
380
LITTLE ELM
CORINTH
35W
FRISCO
87
ALLEN
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS HIGHLAND VILLAGE
75
PLANO
• New supply delivered in 2018 reached record highs for the submarkets combined, with 70% of the deliveries occurring in Alliance • DHL Real Estate Solutions sold the first phase of Elizabeth Creek Gateway in a foreword to State Farm - the two speculative buildings total 1.2 MSF and delivered this month without pre-leasing activity • Northpoint Development entered a joint-venture with the MT Cole Family Trust on +/- 1,100 acres to the north-east of the BNSF Intermodal Terminal – the JV has plans to break ground with two speculative buildings of 1.5 MSF and 1 MSF during the first quarter of 2019 • Trammell Crow Company delivered over 1.6 MSF of spec product in 3 buildings, the largest of which totaled just under 1.1 MSF MURPHY RICHARDSON IRVING FARMERS BRANCH HIGHLAND PARK DALLAS ADDISON CARROLLTON 30 635 635 635 35E 35E 35E 30 12 114 114 121 183 121 12 75 75
FLOWER MOUND
114
ROANOKE
114
SOUTHLAKE
35W
GRAPEVINE
287
ALLIANCE
KELLER
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS
360
COLLEYVILLE
121
NORTH FORT WORTH
BEDFORD
SAGINAW
EULESS
183
HALTOM CITY
820
820
35W
80
121
360
30
WHITE SETTLEMENT
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
12
FORT WORTH
35E
30
45
12
820
175
24 Q4 2018
287
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
820
20
20
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
MARKET SUMMARY - Alliance
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
27.6
27.6
27.6
28.8 31.5 34.5
36.4 38.1
42.6
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
169,458 746,052
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
2.5
4.0
1.6
16.4% 13.8% 8.9% 7.5% 11.2% 15.1% 12.4% 6.0% 11.6%
Overall Vacancy
243,496 25,000
0
1.1
2.7
3.0
1.8
1.7
4.0
Completions (MSF)
73,726
48,726
48,726
3.8
2.8
1.2
1.7
2.7
2.5
Under Construction (MSF)
MARKET SUMMARY - North Fort Worth
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
35.8
35.9
36.0
36.0
36.6
37.1
40.6
42.6 44.3
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
367,833 541,333 328,639 373,041 309,287 (837,861) 4.5
2.3
725,536
6.6% 5.3% 4.9% 3.8% 4.4% 8.1% 4.7% 4.0% 5.1%
Overall Vacancy
0
58,603 188,000
0
541,216 559,367
3.4
2.1
1.7
Completions (MSF)
0
188,000
0
0
0
3.3
1.4
1.1
1.1
Under Construction (MSF)
NET ABSORPTIONS/ COMPLETIONS
VACANCY
Historical Average = 6.9% HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 6.9%
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
14.0%
8.0
7.0
12.0%
6.0
10.0%
5.0
8.0%
4.0
6.0%
Millions
3.0
4.0%
2.0
2.0%
1.0
0.0
0.0%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
Q4 2018
25
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Alliance/North Fort Worth
SELECT LEASING ACTIVITY Tenant Building
Location
SF Leased
Alliance Northport Building 3
I-35W & Sam Lee Ln Northlake
Stanley Black & Decker
1,214,000
1011 I-35 W Fort Worth
Dematic
Synergy Crossing
707,000
3300 Eagle Pky Fort Worth 3300 Eagle Pky Fort Worth 920 Westport Pky Haslet
XPO Logistics
Alliance Center North 15
318,768
Smart Warehousing
Alliance Center North 15
269,494
ATAC
Alliance Westport 3
183,908
899 Henrietta Creek Rd Roanoke 5650 Alliance Gateway Fwy Fort Worth
Lanter Delivery Systems Alliance Gateway 49
170,000
Alliance Sports Group Alliance Gateway 2
142,000
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Completed - Last 12Months
Building
Developer/Owner
RBA SF Available % Leased
TCC 35 Eagle - Building A
Trammell Crow / Prudential
1,089,642
1,089,642
0%
Elizabeth Creek Gateway - Building A DHL / State Farm
705,956
705,956
0%
Synergy Crossing - Building 200
Ironwood / TCRG Properties
503,500
202,000
60%
Elizabeth Creek Gateway - Building B DHL / State Farm
493,500
493,500
0%
Andrews Distributing at Railhead
Andrews Distributing Company
400,000
0
100%
Ridge Railhead - Building 2
Ridge / Morgan Stanley
362,670
362,670
0%
Speedway Distribution Ctr - Building C IDI Logistics
316,128
316,128
0%
TCC 35 Eagle - Building H
Trammell Crow / Prudential
312,733
234,461
25%
Park 820 - Building 2
Scannell
270,000
270,000
0%
TCC 35 Eagle - Building J
Trammell Crow / Prudential
234,277
234,277
0%
Park 820 - Building 1
Scannell
220,229
220,229
0%
Fossil Creek Crossing - Building 1
KKR
219,396
219,396
0%
Fossil Creek Crossing - Building 2
KKR
213,089
213,089
0%
TOTALS
14.6%
26 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Under Construction
Building Parc North Building 5
Developer/Owner
RBA
SF Available
Est. Delivery
EastGroup
100,036
100,036
Jan-19
Alliance Northport 3 Stanley Black & Decker BTS
Hillwood
1,029,846
0
Jun-19
Alliance Northport 1
Hillwood
500,555
500,555
Jun-19
Interstate Crossing
Hunt Southwest
1,023,488
1,023,488
Sep-19
Synergy Crossing 500 Dematic BTS
Ironwood / TCRG Properties
707,000
0
Oct-19
Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019
Alliance Center North 3
Hillwood
783,465
783,465
Intermodal Logistics Center Building 2 Intermodal Logistics Center Building 1
Northpoint Development
1,517,000
1,517,000
Northpoint Development
1,070,000
1,070,000
FORECAST The construction pipeline for both Alliance and North Fort Worth will remain active well into 2019 with 3.6 MSF currently under construction. An increase in vacancy for Alliance is likely - a result of an additional 3.2 MSF of speculative product slated to break ground in the submarket next month. Competitive developers will continue their effort to overcome Alliance’s barriers to entry with acquisition and development of non-developer-controlled sites in the area.
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q4 2018
27
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
28 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Brookhollow/ Trinity
Q4 2018
29
FRISCO
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
ALLEN
LAND AGE
75
PLANO
Brookhollow/Trinity 121
35E
MURPHY
ADDISON
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
RICHARDSON
CARROLLTON
35E
121
75
• Most of the Brookhollow/Trinity’s building stock was built several cycles ago and struggles to meet modern day supply chain and distribution demands • Demand in this submarket is driven by companies with smaller operations and/or local, last mile fulfillment and distribution • The majority of the submarket’s tenant base occupies smaller spaces – current availabilities consist of only 5 spaces that are 50,000 SF and greater, with only one of which is above 100,000 SF • This infill submarket is primarily built-out and new supply isn’t likely until vacancy increases and developers can make sense of redeveloping old product FORNEY 20 30 30 80 175
635
FARMERS BRANCH
114
635
635
114
12
12
HIGHLAND PARK
35E
183
BROOKHOLLOW/ TRINITY
IRVING
75
DALLAS
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
12
35E
45
12
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
20
HUTCHINS
67
35E
175
DUNCANVILLE
MARKET SUMMARY
45
DESOTO
2010 2011 LANCASTER
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
WILMER
67
35E
47.9
47,.9
47.9
47.9
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.3
48.8
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
(1.1)
398,419 137,953 245,991
1.2
572,730 532,986 64,042 20,578
8.1% 7.3% 7.0% 6.6% 4.7% 3.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%
Overall Vacancy
0
21,400
0
34,400 353,161
0
0
0
0
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
21,400
0
139,561 185,161
0
0
0
0
0
30 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
VACANCY
Historical Average = 4.0%
8.0%
HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 4.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
OVERAL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS/COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6 Millions
0.4
0.2
0.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q4 2018
31
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
32 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
DFW Airport
Q4 2018
33
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
DFW Airport
The DFW Airport industrial submarket has a central location with excellent access to multiple major transportation arteries in the greater DFW metroplex and enjoys the highest tenant demand for warehouse/ distribution space. The submarket’s inventory stock is composed of both fee simple ownership and DFW Airport ground leased developments. Since 2015, demand has kept up with new supply and the DFW Airport submarket has played a leading role in absorption for the overall DFW market. 380
The submarket’s lack of developable infill sites along with strong leasing velocity on the northern side of the airport motivated DFW Airport to open the southern end for ground leased development. Developers have aggressively taken advantage of this opportunity, breaking ground on over 5 MSF in 2018, 70% of which is speculative product. The submarket has also seen increased activity on the build-to-suit front with both Mars, Inc. and PPG selecting the submarket for their new facilities. 75
DEVELOPERS BROKE GROUND ON 5 MSF ON DFW AIRPORT GROUND LEASED LAND IN 2018, 70% OF WHICH IS SPECULATIVE PRODUCT, OF WHICH ONE-THIRD IS ALREADY LEASED DENTON 35E
35
LITTLE ELM
380
CORINTH
35W
FRISCO
ALLEN
HIGHLAND VILLAGE
75
PLANO OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
35E
121
FLOWER MOUND
MURPHY • Speculative deliveries on southern DFW Airport ground leased sites accounted for nearly 75% of new supply in the submarket for 2018 • Since DFW Airport officials opened up additional land for ground leased development at the beginning of 2018, eleven different developers have been awarded sites for a total of over 13 MSF planned on about 1,000 acres • Consistently high tenant demand in the submarket continues to make sense of the increased construction activity, absorbing over 10 MSF in the last three years • Nearly 2.4 MSF (62%) of DFW Airport’s deliveries for the year 2018 occurred in Q4, justifying the slight lag in year- end net absorption numbers from year-end completions RICHARDSON HIGHLAND PARK DALLAS 30 30 635 12 75 80 75
E
114
ADDISON
SOUTHLAKE
CARROLLTON
35E
121
GRAPEVINE
635
FARMERS BRANCH
DFW AIRPORT
114
635
TH LAND LS
360
COLLEYVILLE
114
121
12
BEDFORD
EULESS
35E
183
183
IRVING
820
360
30
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
12
35E
FORNEY
45
12
175
34 Q4 2018
20
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
20
20
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
MARKET SUMMARY
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
62.8
62.9
63.0
65.7 70.4
74.0
76.1
79.3
83.1
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
920,319
3.6
2.4
4.5
2.4
3.2
4.6
3.2
2.8
19.2% 13.5% 9.9% 6.8% 9.5% 9.7% 6.1% 5.8% 8.4%
Overall Vacancy
776,483 28,417
85,500
2.7
4.6
3.7
2.1
3.2
3.8
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
0
85,500
1.1
4.5
3.6
2.3
3.7
1.6
3.8
COMPLETIONS / NET ABSORPTIONS
VACANCY
Historical Average = 8.2%
.0%
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 8.5% Historical Average =8.5%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
.0%
14.0%
12.0%
.0%
10.0%
.0%
8.0%
.0%
Millions
6.0%
1.0 1.5
.0%
4.0%
2.0%
.0%
0.0 0.5
0.0%
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
.0%
Q2 2010 Q2 2011
Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
Q4 2018
35
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
DFW Airport
SELECT LEASING ACTIVITY Tenant Building
Location
SF Leased 1,500,000
Mars, Inc
Gateway Logistics Center
Valley View Ln, Irving
Thirty-One Gifts
Prologis Flower Mound 1
951 Garden Ridge Blvd, Flower Mound
651,518
SanMar
Airport South Logistics Center
3400 E Airfield Dr, Irving
562,640
PPG
Lakeside Ranch 530
1001 Lakeside Pky, Flower Mound
449,220
VIRA Insight
Majestic Airport Center DFW - Building 6
2701 S Valley Pky, Lewisville
329,060
American Hotel Register International Logistics Center - Building C 3801 S 20th Ave, DFW Airport
227,924
EMP Manufacturing
Prologis Park 121 - Building 3
220 N Freeport Pky, Coppell
211,000
KGP Logistics
Heritage Business Park - Building 4
801 Industrial Blvd, Grapevine
204,556
USA Shade
DFW Trade Center III
2580 Esters Blvd, Irving
170,000
Aviall
100 S Royal Lane
100 S Royal Ln, Coppell
166,704
Hotline Delivery Systems International Logistics Center - Building B 3711 S 20th Ave, DFW Airport
121,849
HOYA Optical
DFW Trade Center VIII
845 Regent Blvd, Irving
121,404
Badger Paperboard Texas International Logistics Center - Building A 3701 S 20th Ave, DFW Airport
118,634
DHL
DFW Global Logistics Centre - Building 1
1225 Mustang Dr, DFW Airport
117,000
Sunbelt Marketing
Majestic Airport Center DFW - Building 5
2900 S Valley Pky, Lewisville
109,588
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Completed - Last 12Months
Building
Developer/Owner Copeland Commercial
RBA SF Available % Leased
DFW Commerce Center - Building 1
1,000,584 1,000,584
0%
Mary Kay BTS
Mary Kay, Inc
470,000
0
100%
Gateway Logistics Center - Building 3
Bandera Ventures / Long Warf
374,900
374,900
0%
International Logistics Center - Building C Stream / Cabot Properties
324,686
0
100%
Gateway Logistics Center - Building 1
Bandera Ventures / Long Warf
309,240
309,240
0%
Valley View DFW Airport
KKR
294,795
294,795
0%
Gateway Logistics Center - Building 2
Bandera Ventures / Long Warf
211,316
211,316
0%
International Logistics Center - Building B Stream / Cabot Properties
203,476
0
100%
Prologis Park 121 - Building 5B
Prologis
125,520
83,680
33%
Int'l Logistics Center - Building A
Stream / Cabot Properties
118,634
0
100%
Prologis Freeport West - Building 2
Prologis
111,012
111,012
0%
TOTALS
32.7%
36 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Under Construction
Building
Developer/Owner
RBA SF Available
Est. Delivery
Gateway Logistics Center - Building 5
Bandera Ventures / Long Warf
267,254
267,254
Feb-19
Gateway Logistics Center - Building 4
Bandera Ventures / Long Warf
250,312
250,312
Feb-19
Airport South Logistics Center
Robinson Weeks / San Mar
562,640
0
Mar-19
Majestic Airport Center - Building 7
Majestic Realty
306,280 306,280
Mar-19
Lakeside Ranch 530 - PPG BTS
Duke
634,564
185,344
Apr-19
DFW North IV
Huntington
198,854
198,854
Jun-19
Mars, Inc BTS
Bandera Ventures
1,500,000
0
Aug-19
Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019 Planned Break Ground 2019
TCC Passport Park - Building 1
Trammell Crow Company / CBREI
1,021,440 1,021,440
TCC Passport Park - Building 2
Trammell Crow Company / CBREI
711,360
711,360
DFW Airfield Logistics Center - Building 2 Seefried / Clarion
251,100
251,100
DFW Airfield Logistics Center - Building 1 Seefried / Clarion
194,400
194,400
DFW Park 161 - Building 8
Perot Development Co
1,422,720 1,422,720
DFW Park 161 - Building 9
Perot Development Co
648,960 648,960
DFW Park 161 - Building 11
Perot Development Co
182,000
182,000
DFW Park 161 - Building 10
Perot Development Co
156,000
156,000
Mustang Business Park - Building 2
Prologis
429,720
429,720
Mustang Business Park - Building 1
Prologis
401,280
401,280
Mustang Business Park - Building 3
Holt Lunsford Commercial
145,058
145,058
FORECAST An uptick in vacancy is likely as no slow-down on the development front is in sight for 2019; nearly 3.9 MSF is under construction in the submarket and over 4 MSF is slated to break ground. Looking ahead, tenants will continue to be attracted to the area, and we anticipate elevated absorption numbers to catch up with the influx of new supply.
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q4 2018
37
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
38 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
East Fort Worth
Q4 2018
39
ALLEN
HIGHLAND VILLAGE
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
75
PLANO
35E
121
FLOWER MOUND
4
East Fort Worth ROANOKE SOUTHLAKE 114
MURPHY
ADDISON
RICHARDSON
CARROLLTON
35W
35E
121
75
GRAPEVINE
287
635
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS FARMERS BRANCH
114
KELLER
635
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS
360
COLLEYVILLE
635
• Comprised primarily of smaller, multi-tenant product developed in previous cycles • Since 2010, East Fort Worth has delivered less than 600,000 SF of new industrial product • Limited new development opportunities due to lack of available land and shallow demand • The submarket’s largest availability is the 101,896 SF building owned by STAG Industrial and previously occupied by Ecolab at 1801 Riverbend West Drive in Fort Worth • PODS occupied the remaining 67,826 SF vacancy in Riverbend West Distribution Center, a 300K SF speculative building developed by Hunt Southwest that recently traded to Pure Industrial • First Industrial sold Midway Business Park, a 93% leased 470K SF shallow bay industrial portfolio located at SH 121 and I-820, to Cohen Asset Management LANCASTER HUTCHINS WILMER BALCH SPRINGS DESOTO DUNCANVILLE HIGHLAND PARK DALLAS 20 20 45 45 30 35E 35E 35E 35E 30 12 12 12 12 114 183 12 75 67 67 80 175 175
121
BEDFORD
GINAW
EULESS
183
HALTOM CITY
IRVING
820
820
EAST FORT WORTH
35W
121
360
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
FORT WORTH
287
20
820
20
20
FOREST HILL
287
360
35W
MANSFIELD
MARKET SUMMARY
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
22.9
22.9
22.9
22.9
23.0
23.0
23.4 23.5
23.5
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
16,690 (54,492) 35,902
97,359 121,025 (127,368) 216,947 23,604
67,826
5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.0%
Overall Vacancy
0
21,208 25,000
0
50,000 79,800 301,500 100,000
0
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
0
0
0
50,000
0
0
0
0
64,800
40 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
VACANCY
Historical Average = 5.5% ISTORICAL AVERAGE = .5%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS/COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Millions
0.1
0.0
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.2)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q4 2018
41
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
42 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Far North/I-35
Q4 2018
43
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Far North/I-35
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS 75
DENTON
380
35
• Submarket surrounded by heavy residential population
35E
LITTLE ELM
380
CORINTH
35W
• Proximity to DFW Airport, rooftops and Interstate 35 drives demand
FRISCO
ALLEN
FAR NORTH I-35
HIGHLAND VILLAGE
75
• Limited available land for new development
PLANO
SELECT MARKET ACTIVITY & NEW DEVELOPMENT
35E
121
FLOWER MOUND
MURPHY
–– TIGI USA/Unilever renewed in 305,344 SF with Clarion Partners at Waters Ridge Distribution Center in Lewisville –– Toyota Motor Sales USA moved in to 121 Riverview Crossing, a 121,188 SF speculative rear-load building developed by ML Realty at 1825 Midway Road in Lewisville –– First Industrial is under construction on Phase I of First Park 121 with two speculative front-park, rear-load buildings of 220K SF and 125K SF located at Midway Rd and FM 544 in Lewisville 30 30 635 80
ROANOKE
114
ADDISON
SOUTHLAKE
RICHARDSON
CARROLLTON
35W
35E
121
75
GRAPEVINE
635
FARMERS BRANCH
114
KELLER
635
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS
360
COLLEYVILLE
114
121
12
12
BEDFORD
HIGHLAND PARK
EULESS
35E
183
183
HALTOM CITY
IRVING
75
820
W
DALLAS
121
360
30
30
GRAND PRAIRIE
ARLINGTON
12
RTH
35E
FORNEY
45
12
175
287
20
BALCH SPRINGS
12
20
820
20
20
HUTCHINS
67
35E
175
DUNCANVILLE
REST HILL
MARKET SUMMARY 287
45
360
W
DESOTO
LANCASTER
WILMER
MANSFIELD
67
35E
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
15.4
15.4 15.6 15.7
16.0 16.1
16.8
18.1
18.7
Inventory (MSF)
Overall Net Absorption (MSF)
746,641 277,233 457,710 122,750 532,043 146,188 490,918
1.8
314,006
10.7% 9.0% 7.2% 7.0% 5.0% 4.7% 5.9% 2.8% 4.5%
Overall Vacancy
0
23,750 182,125 102,719 231,615 105,004 724,868
1.3
587,198
Completions (MSF)
Under Construction (MSF)
23,750 139,375 74,219 133,787 105,004 377,670
1.3
565,775 564,756
44 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
VACANCY
Historical Average = 5.0%
8.0%
HISTORICAL AVERAGE = 5.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NET ABSORPTIONS/COMPLETIONS
NET ABSORPTION / COMPLETIONS
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Millions
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION COMPLETIONS
TA B L E O F CON T E N T S
Q4 2018
45
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
46 Q4 2018
Industrial Insider Year-End Report
Garland/Mesquite
Q4 2018
47
Cushman &Wakefield Dallas/Fort Worth
Garland/Mesquite
Located on the eastern edge of the DFW metroplex, the Garland and Mesquite submarkets are attractive for their proximity to abundant labor and Interstate Freeways. Mesquite’s tenant base largely consists of 3PLs and manufacturing parts suppliers, while Garland’s has a higher percentage of owner/user tenants. The majority of Mesquite’s inventory centers around the Union Pacific Intermodal hub. Product type consists of mostly cross dock and front load space that is suitable for modern distribution requirements. The Garland submarket’s product type is more diverse, ranging from 380
multi-tenant office showroom/flex and manufacturing space to warehouse distribution, and is comprised of both older and newer building stock. Over the last five years, Garland has consistently led Mesquite in almost every statistical metric. The Garland submarket has accounted for nearly 80% of the 5 MSF of net absorption for submarkets combined over the last five years. Despite Mesquite’s low absorption numbers (a result of a small inventory and several major tenant move-outs), lease-up of new inventory delivered in the submarket has achieved 100% since 2014.
MESQUITE IS SET TO DELIVER OVER 1.8 MSF IN 2019 – THE MOST NEW INVENTORY THE SUBMARKET HAS EVER SEEN WITHIN A CALENDAR YEAR 75
RISCO
ALLEN
75
PLANO
MURPHY
OBSERVATIONS & TRENDS
SON
RICHARDSON
• Despite having zero new supply deliver in both Garland and Mesquite for the first half of the year, the combined submarkets delivered 1.3 MSF of speculative product in the last two quarters, 74% of which was pre-leased to Elements International and Quest Window Systems • Exeter Property Group’s new three-building development at the NEC of S Buckner Blvd and Eastpoint Dr in Mesquite, totaling nearly 1 MSF, is expected to deliver in the first quarter of 2019 – Viracon will be occupying Building 3, a 144,900 SF front-load • The 877K SF Ashley Furniture distribution center currently under construction in Mesquite is expected to deliver during the first half of 2019 • Hillwood landed a 1.2 MSF BTS with Goodyear in Forney and has another large BTS planned in the area for 2019
75
30
GARLAND
635
12
HIGHLAND PARK
30
75
DALLAS
80
MESQUITE
5E
FORNEY
45
12
175
20
BALCH SPRINGS
20
HUTCHINS
35E
175
45
LANCASTER
WILMER
35E
48 Q4 2018
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