Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | EMEA

Shifting Capital Flows, Return of European Investors?

Impact on CRE

• The recent weakening of the U.S. dollar against the euro may influence the relative attractiveness of euro-denominated assets for U.S.-based investors, as European assets have become relatively more expensive. All else being equal, this currency shift could have a moderating effect on U.S. capital flows into European real estate. • On the other hand, shifting global risk sentiment precipitated a flight to safety and liquidity, which has benefitted European sovereign bonds so far. • If demand shifts away toward less liquid assets that also command perceived safety, European CRE may benefit. Investors may seek diversification and lower-risk opportunities, thereby supporting continued capital inflows into European real estate despite higher asset pricing. • Domestic investors may also find a window of opportunity to deploy capital as U.S. investors recalibrate their global allocation strategies.

1.10

1.05

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.75

Jul-2016

Jul-2017

Jul-2018

Jul-2019

Apr-2020 EUR-USD Jul-2020

Jul-2021

Jul-2022

Jul-2023

Jul-2024

Oct-2016

Oct-2017

Oct-2018

Oct-2019

Oct-2020

Oct-2021

Oct-2022

Oct-2023

Oct-2024

Apr-2016

Apr-2017

Apr-2018

Apr-2019

Apr-2021

Apr-2022

Apr-2023

Apr-2024

Apr-2025

Jan-2016

Jan-2017

Jan-2018

Jan-2019

Jan-2020

Jan-2021

Jan-2022

Jan-2023

Jan-2024

Jan-2025

Source: ECB, Moody's Analytics

CONTENTS

Cushman & Wakefield