Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | EMEA

Stagflation Signs Starting to Appear

The LEI* declines further

Manufacturing Sector Contracting

Confidence Falling

100 110 120 130

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10

30 40 50 60 70

<50 Contraction

80 90

Index, 2016=100

80 90 The Stag The Flation 100 110 120 130 140

Jul-2024

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23

Jul-24

Apr-2024

Oct-2024

Jan-2024

Jun-2024

Jan-2025

Mar-2024

Mar-2025

Feb-2024

Feb-2025

Nov-2024

Dec-2024

Aug-2024

Sep-2024

Oct-21

Oct-22

Oct-23

Oct-24

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24

Jan-25

May-2024

Jul-19

Oct-24

Oct-17

Apr-21

Jun-22

Jan-23

Jan-16

Mar-24

Mar-17

Feb-20

Dec-18

Nov-21

Sep-20

Aug-23

Aug-16

May-18

Euro area Manf PMI

UK Manf PMI

Euro Area Consumer Confidence

Euro area leading economic index

Import Prices Trending Up

Although Inflation Expectations Steady

Businesses Planning to Raise Prices

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

10 12

0 2 4 6 8

Jul-2022

Jul-2023

Jul-2024

Jul-2021

Oct-2022

Oct-2023

Oct-2024

Oct-2021

Apr-2022

Apr-2023

Apr-2024

Jan-2022

Jan-2023

Jan-2024

Jan-2025

Jul-2024

Jun-2023 Aug-2023 Euro Area Selling Price Expectations, Balance, SA Oct-2023 Dec-2023 Feb-2024 Apr-2024 Jun-2024 Aug-2024 Oct-2024 Dec-2024 Feb-2025

Euro Area Import Prices 2021=100, Index

Oct-2024 Euro Area 3YR ahead Nov-2024 Dec-2024

Feb-2024 Euro Area 1YR ahead Mar-2024 Apr-2024 May-2024

Jan-2024

Jun-2024

Jan-2025

Feb-2025

Aug-2024

Sep-2024

UK 1YR ahead

UK 3YR ahead

Source: Various *The Leading Economic Index (LEI) signals potential turning points in the euro area economy. It comprises eight indicators, including ECB yield spreads, consumer expectations, stock prices, manufacturing and services surveys, order book volumes, residential permits, and a systemic stress index.

CONTENTS

Cushman & Wakefield