U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

And this is what it will look like Job losses likely to be moderate from historical perspective

-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

1990-91: 1.6 million (-1.5%)

2001: 2.6 million (-2.0%)

1980: 1.2 million (-1.3%)

2020: 21.9 million (-14.4%)

2023-24: 2.5 million (-1.6%)

-4.0%

1981-82: 2.8 million (-3.1%)

2007-09: 8.7 million (-6.3%)

job losses peak-to-trough

-6.0%

-8.0%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Job Growth, 000's

% Change (RHS)

13

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, C&W Research Baseline Scenario. Note: Figure depicts the change in nonfarm employment from December of one year to December of the next year.