U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

Odds are high a recession is imminent

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Implied Probability of Recession, %

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07 Recession

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Implied Probability (Based on 10-Year/3-Month, %)

12

Source: Moody’s Analytics, National Bureau of Economic Research