U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

We probably need a recession to cool wage growth

5.5%

5.0%

Recession, wage growth falls

Recession, wage growth falls

4.5%

4.0%

Recession, wage growth falls

Recession, wage growth falls

3.5%

3.0%

2.0% 2.5%

1.5%

1.0%

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

Recession Dates

Employment Cost Index

Estimated Fed Target

11

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research