Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop

It should be noted that WalkUPs are also appearing in the suburbs, including redeveloped suburban town centers (e.g., Pasadena, CA; Bethesda, MD; Media, PA), redeveloped DriveINs (e.g., Bel-Mar, CO; Tysons, VA; Bellevue, WA) and greenfield and brownfield redevelopment (e.g., Avalon, GA; Assembly Square, Somerville, MA; Reston Town Center, VA). Research conducted by Places Platform, LLC and Cushman & Wakefield 23 leads us to conclude that the major development trend of the next 20 years will be the “urbanization of the suburbs,” providing WalkUPs for the 82% of the metropolitan American population that lives in the suburbs. WalkUPs command rent and price premiums and have been gaining market share in the early 21st century due to the walkable, complex and mixed-use nature of these places. Each new real estate project adds complexity to WalkUPs, increases foot traffic, offers more options for residents, employees and visitors, and boosts real estate valuations. This leads to higher tax revenues with a lower cost of government services psf. 24 These factors can lead to reduced crime rates because more people on the street increases vigilance. They may also lower the percentage of people experiencing homelessness by providing more affordable housing options and better access to necessary services, thanks to increased government revenues. In addition, walkable urban households often have lower transportation costs, which typically make up 17% of U.S. household spending—the second largest household spending category. 25 Together, this orchestra creates lyrical animation in WalkUPs at different hours of the day and night, throughout the week. During the workday, a WalkUP may have a business-focused character, while evenings and weekends can bring a calmer and more serene atmosphere. Just a few blocks away, you might find a vibrant entertainment area with restaurants and nightclubs. Then two blocks further there may be a quieter neighborhood with a more residential feel. Additionally, some WalkUPs feature major sports arenas that attract thousands of fans

for games and events, adding yet another layer of activity and character. However, when one instrument in this “orchestra” is out of tune, it can have a negative impact on the entire performance, degrade the overall experience, and potentially trigger a doom loop if not addressed. DriveINs have far fewer components than WalkUPs, but typically include some combination of the following elements: • Segregated product types that require a car or truck to connect with product types, such as multifamily rental housing, office spaces, retail, hotels and industrial areas. • Most transportation trips are made by car or truck, with parking primarily in private surface lots. • Floor area ratios (FAR) are between 0.2 and 0.5, which is much lower compared to WalkUPs. • Transit, biking and walking are often impractical and may be unsafe; sometimes there are no sidewalks. • A major anchor for a DriveIN is often a regional mall, which can range from 600,000 to 2 million square feet (msf), averaging about 900,000 square feet (sf) and is usually surrounded by large surface parking lots covering 70% to 80% of the land area. • Crime tends to be less of a problem due to private land ownership, lower population density and limited accessibility by transit or walking. • Homelessness is less visible because access to DriveINs is limited, and once there, the dispersed nature of the area makes it challenging to navigate on foot. • Management is generally handled at the property level by the private sector. • Occasionally, private property owners may form voluntary partnerships to address common issues such as marketing, government relations, and sometimes shuttle bus services around the DriveIN.

23 Urban to Suburban: The Growing Shift to the Suburbs as COVID-19 Changes the Way People Live 24 In a later section we will explore how WalkUPs in the 15 cities analyzed in this study account for 36.5% of citywide tax revenue while only comprising 24.5% of real estate inventory and 3.0% of land mass. 25 U.S. DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics

18 Cushman & Wakefield