Where Do European Property Values Go From Here?

Odds of a Recession Rising Rapidly Euro area & UK

*Probability of a recession in the next 12 Months?

Spread between 10-Yr & 2-Yr Government Bond Yields

Euro area UK

Euro area UK

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

3.5

3

2.5

Expectations for the euro area and UK falling into recession is now greater than 50%

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

-0.5

Jul-22

Apr-22

Jan-22

Jun-22

Mar-22

Feb-22

Aug-22

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

May-22

Source: *Bloomberg surveys (5 th Aug - 11 th Aug), Moody’s Analytics

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