Where Do European Property Values Go From Here?

Economic Indicators Point to Weakness

Euro area

REITS Point to Price Correction

PMI’s Fall Below 50

Bond Rates Rising

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

S&P Eurozone Investment Grade Corporate Bond yield ICE BofA Euro High Yield Corporate Bond Yield

Euro area France Germany UK % Change since year-end 2021

Composite

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Jul-20

Oct-21

02-Jul-22

22-Jul-22

Mar-22

Feb-20

Dec-20

Sep-19

Aug-22

13-Apr-22

May-21

03-Jan-22

23-Jan-22

12-Jun-22

04-Mar-22

24-Mar-22

12-Feb-22

11-Aug-22

03-May-22

23-May-22

Energy Prices Surging

Consumer Sentiment Dropping

Labour Markets Slowing

80 100 120 140 160 180

Germany Euro area

Spain France

0 2 4 6 8

Electricity

Gas

May-22 Aug-22

-40 -30 -20 -10 0

UK

-8 -6 -4 -2

% y/y employment growth

Consumer energy prices (2015 =100)

Jul 16

Jul 17

Jul 18

Jul 19

Jul 20

Jul 21

Jul 22

Jan 17

Jan 18

Jan 19

Jan 20

Jan 21

Jan 22

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Source: Bloomberg, European Commission, Eurostat, Moody’s Analytics

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