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Occupancy DIscussion
NOVEMBER 2019
A new headquarters for Accordion presents a rare and exciting opportunity to make a statement about who you are, and what you aspire to be, as a company. The eventual commitment will affect your financial performance; your ability to attract, engage, and retain talent; your brand; and operating efficiencies; among other factors. This Cushman & Wakefield partnership will leverage its long-term understanding of Accordion, New York City leadership, and experience guiding companies through this process to inform our approach and ensure a successful project.
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A Dynamic Team
PROJECT LEADERS
DAVID DUSEK EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN
ETHAN SILVERSTEIN VICE CHAIRMAN
STRATEGIC ADVISORY GROUP
WORKPLACE INNOVATION
PROJECT & DEVELOPMENT SERVICES
MARKET RESEARCH
ASHLEY CHASE DIRECTOR
RACHEL CASANOVA SENIOR MANAGING DIRECTOR
RICHARD PERSICHETTI VICE PRESIDENT
RICHARD JANTZ EXECUTIVE MANAGING DIRECTOR
OUR FULL-SERVICE PLATFORM
ASSET SERVICES | CAPITAL MARKETS VALUATION & ADVISORY | GLOBAL OCCUPIER SERVICES INVESTMENT & ASSET MANAGEMENT | FACILITIES SERVICES | AGENCY LEASING
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The Proof is in the...
SELECT EXPERIENCE
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First Things First
Understand the landscape, your current situation, your space, your operations, and your vision for the future of Accordion
Before we talk real estate, let’s dig into your business and the culture behind it in order to develop a strategy. Our job is to understand how you operate, who you employee/serve and how they interact with the physical workplace environment. Drivers
Talent: How does your physical environment drive recruitment? Location: Ease of access and proximity to clients and visitors Flexibility: Future proof Event Space: In-house and/or in building event space – how will it limit the world of options? Financial: Spending smart and realizing the return Building/Neighborhood Amenities: Quality of life in and outside of the office
We help companies prioritize the criteria they will use in deciding what’s most important in a location and space. We have tools to collect information and organize/quantify to assist in the decision-making process
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the most crucial part of this process: getting to know you.
Industries are becoming location agnostic ... how critical is location to Accordion? Where do you want to be? where do you NEED to be?
How much funding do you have to commit to your headquarters growth?
What is Accordion’s vision for the future – how does the real estate reflect the brand?
How will Accordion optimally occupy space? How does this look today versus 1, 3, and 5 years from now with agile working?
How does Accordian plan for future growth?
How can C&W assist with structuring a long- term deal that allows for a path to sustainable
growth within the chosen building?
Which service lines will you be growing? How will this affect
How do you plan for future expansion options without making forward inflexible commitments?
your real estate requirements?
Can Accordion live through the current lease expiration in the current premises considering projected headcounts in New York City?
How long will it take to plan and execute on each scenario under consideration?
Will this future occupancy be the signature of your brand
How are you competing for talent with the technology industry?
Are there ways to structure a transaction to mitigate upfront capital?
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Current Occupancy – 31 W 52nd Street
31 West 52nd Street Cross Streets: Fifth & Sixth Avenues
Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman 2030
29
16,314
Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman 2030
28
22,344
Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman 2030
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24,762
Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman 2030
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24,925
Available
Available
Pillsbury 2030
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27,343
Providence Equity Partners 2030
Available
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27,343
Providence Equities Partners 2030
23
27,343
Centerview Partners 2030
22
27,343
Centerview Partners 2030
21
27,343
TD Bank 2021
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27,343
TD Bank 2021
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27,343
TD Bank 2021
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27,343
Stone Harbor Investment 2029
17
27,343
Accordion Partners 2021 (Subtenant)
Stone Harbor Investment 2029
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27,343
TD Bank 2021
15
27,343
Holland & Knight LLP 2024
Clifford Chance 2024
14
27,343
Holland & Knight LLP 2024
13
27,343
Holland & Knight LLP 2024
12
27,343
Holland & Knight LLP 2024
11
27,343
Holland & Knight LLP 2024
10
27,343
TD Bank 2024
9
27,343
Clifford Chance 2024
8
27,343
Clifford Chance 2024
7
27,343
Clifford Chance 2024
6
27,343
Clifford Chance 2024
5
27,343
Clifford Chance 2024
4
28,100
Clifford Chance 2024
3
28,100
TD Bank 2021
2
28,100
1
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Will the relocation of TD Bank provide any opportunities? Leverage?
Is new space worth the disruption of a relocation?
Can the space be reconfigured to meet future requirements?
How does this location impact recruitment and retention?
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Keys to a Great Deal
it’s not just about the rent
Downtown Incentive Program
Climate Mobilization Act
Operating Escalation
Financial Engineering
After-Hours HVAC
Loss Factor
Freight Elevator Charges
Common Area Electric Escalation
Landlord Vendor Approval
Labor Harmony Issues
Construction Surrogacy
Electric Charges
Business Improvement Districts
Cost Segregation
Good Guy Guarantee
Commercial Rent Tax
Real Estate Taxes NOPV
Tenant Chargebacks
Be nimble: strategies for securing flexibility Direct lease with growth/ contraction options LL with a portfolio Warehouse space (sublease excess until needed) Short-term sublease
long-term view of tenancy
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Occupancy Trends
Debt Structure
Landlord
Local Markets
Understand landlord motivation and break even points Negotiate from a position of strength with walkaway leverage Best market information know where a deal can/should be done
Building
Job Growth
Evaluate the full universe of alternatives and scenarios know your options and trade-offs Negotiating flexibility can be more valuable than rent (i.e., contraction/expansion/termination/ renewal options/sublease rights)
Alternatives
Client
Economy
Fully leverage tenancy in the market know that your requirement has value
Industry Trends
Portfolio Rollover
Comparable/Historical Pricing
Tenacity is advocacy .
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Process & Timing
UNDERSTAND
PLAN
EXECUTE
Year 1
Mo. 1
Mo. 2
Mo. 3
Mo. 4
Mo. 5
Mo. 6
Mo. 7
Mo. 8
Mo. 9
Mo
Collect Data
RFPs
Project Kick-off
Negotiate Business Terms/Site Tours
Engage Third-Party Consultants
Select Target Properties
Lease Negotiation 8 Weeks
Workplace Strategy
Define Preliminary Occupancy
Develop Pricing & Timing
Short-list
Relocate to New Buildout
Collect Data
RFPs
Project Kick-off
Negotiate Business Terms/Site Tours
Engage Third-Party Consultants
Select Target Properties
Lease Negotiation 8 Weeks
Workplace Strategy
Define Preliminary Occupancy
Develop Pricing & Timing
Short-list
Relocate to Built Space
DECISION POINT
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BUILD & RELOCATE
Year 2
o. 9
Mo. 10 Mo. 11
Mo. 12
Mo. 13
Mo. 14
Mo. 15
Mo. 16
Mo. 17
Mo. 18
Pre-Design
Design Management
Bid Negotiation | 8 Weeks
egotiation s
Construction | 16 Weeks
Relocation planning & project close-out | 2Weeks
egotiation s
FLEXIBLE TIMING FOR WORK COMMENCEMENT; CONTINUE TO MONITOR MARKET FOR NEW OPPORTUNITIES
TARGET LEASE EXECUTION
CURRENT LEASE EXPIRATION
Proactivity creates opportunity.
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No Good Broker Goes it Alone
STRATEGIC ADVISORY SERVICES
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
WORKPLACE INNOVATION
Effective collaboration with tenants on workplace strategy, tenant improvements, move management and sustainability practices.
Strategic planning, underwriting and financial analysis, breakeven analysis,
Creating a vision for a future workspace by aligning workplace strategy and trends with our clients’ goals.
transaction structuring, reporting and consensus building.
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PROPERTY MANAGEMENT
CAPITAL MARKETS
TECHNOLOGY
Review building infrastructure for each candidate property and benchmark against the properties C&W manages.
Assessing and utilizing multiple innovative programs to equip our tenants with cutting- edge resources to maximize real estate efforts.
Deep dive into the financing of potential relocation options.
A critical partner, providing proprietary market due diligence and occupancy solutions that align needs with business strategy, financial goals, and operational objectives.
BROKERAGE SERVICES
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Why Partner with Cushman & Wakefield?
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Successful history with Accordion, instant accountability
Our most powerful tools: Forward thinking, relationships, creativity, intelligence & insight Proven track record advising and outperforming the market Seamless delivery through integrated and vast resources David and Ethan will be personally engaged throughout this process, and lead negotiations with tenacity on behalf of Accordion
We are your true partner , your advocate and will go above and beyond to ensure the optimal occupancy solution for Accordion’s future
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The Landscape
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NYC Office-Using Employment Keeps Growing
Nearly 304,000 Office Jobs Added Over Last Ten Years; Dipped Four Consecutive Months from 1.469M
NYC Office-Using Employment Keeps Growing
Nearly 304,000 Office Jobs Added Over Last Ten Years; Dipped Four Consecutive Months from 1.469M
Aug. 2019 Employment: 1.454 million
1,500
1,450
1,400
Professional Services 613,800 jobs +163,200
1,350
Q1 2001 Employment: 1.290 million
1,300
Financial Services 472,700 jobs +48,300
1,250
1,200
1,150
Thousands of Persons
TAMI 370,800 jobs +95,400
1,100
1,050
1,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
Cushman & Wakefield | Copyright © 2019
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Densification Office-Using Tenants Doing More with Less
Densification
Office-Using Tenants Doing More with Less
2019 359 msf occupied
2001 376 msf occupied 1.29 million employees 291 sf per employee
1.45 million employees 247 sf per employee
163,300 more employees occupy 17.0 msf less space
Cushman & Wakefield | Copyright © 2019
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Manhattan Office Market MIDTOWN Total Size:
243.3 msf
Q3 19 Q3 18
Vacancy 11.1% 9.2% Leasing Activity 14.0 msf 17.2 msf Asking Rents Class A $82.22 $82.81 Class B $63.51 $61.59
MANHATTAN Total Size:
MIDTOWN SOUTH Total Size:
401.2 msf
68.1 msf
Q3 19 Q3 18
Q3 19 Q3 18 8.1% 7.4%
Vacancy 10.6% 9.5% Leasing Activity 25.6 msf 25.7 msf Asking Rents Class A $79.80 $78.67 Class B $64.91 $61.48
Vacancy
Leasing Activity 5.6 msf
5.1 msf
Asking Rents Class A
$99.02 $93.43 $76.47 $68.15
Class B
DOWNTOWN Total Size:
89.8 msf
Q3 19 Q3 18
Vacancy 11.1% 12.0% Leasing Activity 6.0 msf 3.4 msf Asking Rents Class A $66.70 $67.23 Class B $59.03 $55.38
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243.3 msf
Q3 19 Q3 18 11.1% 9.2% ity 14.0 msf 17.2 msf
$82.22 $82.81 $63.51 $61.59
UTH
68.1 msf
Q3 19 Q3 18 8.1% 7.4%
ity 5.6 msf
5.1 msf
$99.02 $93.43 $76.47 $68.15
89.8 msf
Q3 19 Q3 18 11.1% 12.0% ity 6.0 msf 3.4 msf
$66.70 $67.23 $59.03 $55.38
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Midtown Office Market
Vacancy Rate vs. Asking Rents
Midtown Office Market Vacancy Rate vs. Asking Rents
$100.00
14.0%
12.6%
12.0%
11.1%
$90.00
$82.22
10.0%
Average Asking Rents $/sf
$80.00
8.0%
$70.00
6.0%
$63.51
Vacancy
$60.00
4.0%
$50.00
2.0%
$40.00
0.0%
Vacancy
Class A Asking Rent
Class B Asking Rent
Cushman & Wakefield | Copyright © 2019
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Midtown Submarket Snapshot
idtown Submarket Snapshot
man & Wakefield | Copyright © 2019
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Impact of Hudson Yards & New Development Far West Side Migration: Hudson Yards and Manhattan West Impact of s & Ne Development Far West Side Migration: Hudson Yards and Manhattan West
Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy Completion
5 Manhattan West 10 Hudson Yards 55 Hudson Boulevard
1,800,000 1,745,000 1,418,770 2,600,000 2,077,557 2,800,000 1,945,245 17,277,766 2,891,194
100.0% 2016 100.0% 2016 93.4% 2018 100.0% 2019 87.9% 2019 32.3% 2022 32.4% 2022 24.7% 2022
30 Hudson Yards
One Manhattan West
50 Hudson Yards
66 Hudson Boulevard 2 Manhattan West
TOTALS
67.2%
47 TENANTS committed to
11.0 MSF, moving from 10.3 MSF
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*Expansions within New York City
ttan West
Completion 2016 2016 2018 2019 2019 2022 2022 2022
Map highlights migrations greater than 50,000 sf
*Expansions within New York City
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With the Rise of Fintech Expanding in
Concentration of Financial Services
SIXTH AVENUE/ROCK CENTER
With the rise of fintech, financial firms are
expanding into Midtown South
WEST SIDE/TIMES SQUARE
PENN STATION/HUDSON YARDS
DOWNTOWN
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o Midtown South
MADISON/FIFTH
TAMI Demand Focused in Eight Submarkets
PARK AVENUE
GRAND CENTRAL
MIDTOWN SOUTH
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TAMI Demand Focused in Six
TAMI Demand Focused in Eight Submarkets
Heat Map Based on 2014-2019 Leasing Acti
PENN STATION/HUDSON YARDS 33 Tenants | 3.4 msf
Heat Map Based on 2014-2019 Leasing Activity
CHELSEA 32 Tenants | 1.6 msf
34 Tenants | 3.0 msf HUDSON SQUARE
WORLD TRADE 40 Tenants | 3.4 msf
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Submarkets
ity
22 Tenants | 1.5 msf SIXTH AVENUE/ROCK CENTER
MURRAY HILL 30 Tenants | 1.3 msf
104 Tenants | 4.0 msf MADISON/FLATIRON
18 Tenants | 1.2 msf SOHO / NOHO
601 TAMI TENANTS
27.6 MSF LEASED
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Midtown Concessions
STARTING RENT & NET EFFECTIVE RENT
TENANT IM
$/sf
$/sf
Starting NER
$95.00
$10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110
-18.8% -19.1%
-17.6%
$85.00
-14.4% -15.7%
$75.00
$86.77
$85.90
$65.00
$81.90
$75.74
$74.61
$55.00
$70.22
$69.77
$67.50
$64.83
$45.00
$62.86
$65.65
$35.00
$25.00
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019 YTD
201
New Leases Only
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TENANT IMPROVEMENT ALLOWANCES & FREE RENT
$/sf
Months Free
TI
Free Rent
$10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110
16
9.1%
14
12
10
$101.34
$94.79
$87.42
8
$70.22
$67.11
6
$65.65
4
2
19 YTD
2015
2016
2017
2018 2019 YTD
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Sixth Avenue Availabilities
AVAILABILITIES 20,000–40,000 RSF
101 88 73 45
Sixth Avenue availabilities in Class A Buildings
Direct Availability
Entire Single Floor
Under $90/RSF
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Buildings with potential options
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Cushman & Wakefield
at the center of WHAT’S NEXT
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