23116_FOC Centralized Content_Mobility_Report_v3[90]

Takeaways » Transportation is perhaps the biggest determinant of the shape of our cities today. » London’s reliance on public transport stands in contrast to other UK cities. » New infrastructure can take easily 20 years to deliver; we are well sighted on the pipeline to 2040. » Increased capacity on existing lines will increase densification and public transport use. » New last mile modes will disperse and increase congestion, but will be protected against in development and city planning. » We are all likely to travel less by 2040. Black Swan Risks » Decrease travel time merges the UK’s cities into just one city. » Virtualisation radically reduces travel. » Reduced travel makes infrastructure improvements unaffordable.

More likely than new infrastructure is the delivery of increased capacity on existing infrastructure. More trains and longer trains will ease existing crowding issues. However, this will do two things. Firstly, it will encourage increased density in existing urban areas, rather than increased urban sprawl. Secondly, it will give trains the advantage over cars (where new road capacity is more challenging to deliver) and push more people onto public transport. At a finer grain, a resurgence in the use of personal transport either self-powered or electric is likely to continue and find favour in policy. Meanwhile an increased use of last mile modes such as a scooters, drones / automated pods and delivery vans, together with mobility-as-a-service fleets of automated vehicles have the potential to further drive congestions. Against this, much more scientific use of smart city traffic routing, will smooth out some capacity issues. Finally, we are all likely to travel less in 2040. Corporate occupiers are already working on strategies that prioritise ‘less and more meaningful’ travel and targeting a reduction in ‘corporate tourism’. A mix of home working, telecommuting, an increased focus on localism and ’15-minute cities’, and an increased economic reliance in digital products perhaps through the metaverse that move virtually, will result in less unnecessary journeys.

CITY SHAPER MOBILITY

2 Cushman & Wakefiled | Future of Cities |