Waypoint: Global Industrial Dynamics 2025

The Challenge of Uncertainty

Over the past two decades, events like the GFC, the COVID-19 pandemic, major conflicts and extreme weather have disrupted the movement of goods around the world. More recently, the Trump administration, following a hard economic shift, introduced significant shocks to the global economy via unilateral tariffs on U.S. imports. Trade disruptions are not new, and supply chains have consistently adapted to changing trade dynamics in the past—and will continue to do so.

U.S. Effective Tariff Rate on All Goods Imports, %

Effective Tariff Rate (C&W Baseline), % Liberation Day (Apr 2) 90-day pause, China increase to 145% (Apr 9)

30

Tariffs slowly fall off in 2026 as trade deals are negotiated July 1 st 2026;

25.4

25

17.5 20.5

20

15

USMCA reneval

Effective tariff rate climbs from 1.5% to 3%

Trump's second term

10

Trump's first term

5

0

2021Q1

2015Q1

2018Q1

2017Q2

2027Q1

2016Q3

2019Q3

2021Q4

2024Q1

2015Q4

2018Q4

2022Q3

2023Q2

2025Q3

2026Q2

2027Q4

2020Q2

2024Q4

Source: Moody’s Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research

The current trade and macroeconomic environment remains highly fluid. Accordingly, it is appropriate to take a broader view of current conditions to identify key issues, rather than focusing on specific outcomes: • Dynamic tariff changes suggest they may have peaked and are likely to ease over time. Therefore, business decisions should be made with a broader, long-term lens. • Should any tariffs remain, the impact on businesses, consumers, economies and property markets will depend on any differentiation between products and countries. This is highly nuanced and will require granular analysis. • Globally, confidence has weakened, slowing near-term economic growth, but potential central bank interventions could drive a rebound in 2026. • Emerging demand for logistics and industrial real estate is expected, with increased defence spending in EMEA as a key example.

Waypoint: Global Industrial Dynamics 11