Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | United States

Executive Summary

The Economy

Property

• In the first 100 days, we have observed a hard shift in economic policy under President Trump . From trade reforms to immigration, to the establishment of DOGE to tax and spending policy, the Trump Administration has taken swift and decisive action. • Given the flurry of changes, the word that dominated the marketplace in the first 100 days was uncertainty . • The U.S. economy has remained resilient thus far, but the policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on some of the leading indicators pointing to slower growth ahead . • Recession odds are rising and short-term stagflation — meaning slowing economic growth and sticky inflation — is emerging as the new consensus for 2025. A stronger growth scenario is forming for 2026 . • The situation remains fluid with many developments still unfolding, and there may be both potential benefits and drawbacks to these policy changes that will unfold over time.

• The property sector has largely remained resilient through the first 100 days. The leasing fundamentals held steady and the capital markets recovery continued in Q1 2025. • Industrial and retail will be most impacted by the tariffs , but overall, the leasing fundamentals are expected to remain resilient. Assuming no recession, our base case calls for a near-term slowdown in occupier demand, with upside materializing in 2026. • Rising construction costs and more restrictive immigration will put upward pressure on costs and slow the construction pipeline which was already slowing going into 2025. Existing assets will likely benefit on a relative basis . • While credit and risk spreads may widen in the short-term, the gradual recovery in debt and capital markets is expected to continue and gain more pace in 2026.

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Cushman & Wakefield