Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | United States

GSA Cities With Most Exposure

Impact on CRE

• Most of the impact on CRE markets will come through two main channels: execution

Most Exposed to Early Terminations on Leased Real Estate (msf)

Most Exposed to Lease Rollovers During Trump 2.0 Term (msf)

of active early termination options or allowing an expiring lease to terminate without renewal.

San Antonio Baltimore San Diego Los Angeles Not in any MSA Denver Houston Miami Chicago Philadelphia Atlanta Dallas/Fort Worth New York City Kansas City Washington, DC

Jacksonville Phoenix Not in an MSA Cincinnati Philadelphia Pittsburgh Chicago Miami Virginia Beach Seattle Los Angeles Atlanta Kansas City New York City Washington, DC

• Across the GSA leased portfolio, 32% of all leases nationwide have an active early termination clause, however in Washington, DC, this share is only 8.0%. • The leased and owned portfolio is highly concentrated in 29 cities — for each parts of the portfolio, 29 cities account for 75% of total GSA exposure. Washington, DC accounts for over 25% alone. • Our analysis shows that if early terminations are exercised, the average increase in office vacancy in the top 29 markets would be 0.2% (0.8% for DC). • If all leases that are expiring during Trump 2.0 do not get renewed, the average increase in office vacancy would be 0.4% for the top 28 markets outside of Washington, DC. In DC, the increase would be 12.0%. This scenario is unlikely as federal RTO mounts.

0

2

4

0

10

20

Office Non-office

Non-Office Office

Source: GSA January 2025 Leasing Dataset, Cushman & Wakefield Research

CONTENTS

CONTENTS

Cushman & Wakefield

30