Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | United States

Thesis for Expected Rebound in 2026

Impact on CRE

• While the outlook for 2025 has become more subdued, the stage is being set for a greater growth story in 2026. • The baseline calls for the average effective tariff rate to be notching down, which will allow inflation to decelerate creating an easier pathway for the Fed to cut. • Further, some of the impacts of President Trump’s other priorities will start to materialize more meaningfully — a marginal boost from the tax cuts extension (with some net new tax cuts) and deregulation.

Growth Accelerates

Inflation Rolls Over

3.5

4.0

H2 2025 : Fed cutting rates (concerned about growth)

Jan 2026 : Tax cuts are extended and deregulation Feb 2026 : Trump hints trade deals are being negotiated

3.0

3.5

H2 2026 : Tariffs come off or are reduced on most Mar 2026 : Fed continues normalizing policy

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.5

2.5

• This implies that property demand will accelerate in 2026 at a time when the

1.0

2.0

construction pipeline has thinned out more than was expected “pre - tariff.” Downward movement in vacancy and upward pressure on rents will begin to form across most property types and markets as a result.

0.5

1.5

0.0

-0.5

1.0

2024Q1

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

2025Q1

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

2024Q1

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

2025Q1

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

Real GDP, AR%

PCE, Y/Y%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, Moody’s Analytics

CONTENTS

CONTENTS

Cushman & Wakefield

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