Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | United States

Even As Markets Price in New Fed Path Fed Fund Futures for December 2025 FOMC Meeting

Impact on CRE

• Coming into 2025, futures markets were expecting only one cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), although there was a nearly equal (but smaller) probability of two rate cuts. • As of April 23, markets are now favoring three cuts despite numerous surveys and market-based measures indicating that tariffs will be inflationary in the immediate term. • The consensus appears to remain that there will be a “one - time” hit to inflation for each tariff, but that expectations will remain anchored and thus endemic inflation will not occur. • For CRE, the shifting yield curve could make some debt strategies more or less attractive. For example, if the yield curve inversion remains, borrowers are likely to take on shorter-term, fixed rate debt. However, if the yield curve un-inverts, floating rate debt would become increasingly attractive, and for risk-averse investors, longer-duration fixed rate borrowing would make sense.

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

Probability

15%

10%

5%

0%

Week of Election

Week of Inauguration

Latest

225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 400-425 425-450 450-475

Source: CME

CONTENTS

CONTENTS

Cushman & Wakefield