Southeast Asia Outlook 2024

Southeast Asia Outlook 2024: Opportunity Beckons

CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

MARKET STATISTICS

RESIDENTIAL (HIGH-END, LUXURY, ULTRA-LUXURY CONDOS)

OFFICE (GRADE A&B)

RETAIL (SHOPPING CENTER)

LOGISTICS (GREATER HCMC)

143,163

114,045

X 10,191

Selling Price 16,694,216

Rents Q4 2023 (VND psf pm) 2024 Forecast

X

X

X

X

X

X

X 4.4%

10.2%

32.0%

839 units

Vacancy Q4 2023 2024 Forecast

X X

X

Current Inventory (million sf)

3.5

10.4

59.2

70,960 units

Pipeline Supply (million sf)

5.8

9.3

15.1

77,468 units

VIETNAM: HO CHI MINH MARKET SNAPSHOT

Pipeline supply over Current Inventory Ratio

167%

89%

25%

109%

X

Capital Value Outlook 2024

X

X

X

X

X

X

ECONOMY

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

• Vietnam has achieved GDP growth of 5.1% in 2023 and strives for 6.0 – 6.5% in 2024, with lowering interest rates while balancing between inflationary pressure and economic growth. • Vietnam continues to be a key beneficiary of an on-going China + 1 strategy, with healthy inbound investments. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam rose to USD 36.6 billion (32.1% yoy increase) in 2023 which was largely driven by investments into the manufacturing (64%) and real estate (13%) sectors. • Despite global economic headwinds, logistics & industrial sector in Greater HCMC remained attractive to investors thanks to the relocation of large manufacturers into Vietnam.

RECENT SIGNIFICANT DEALS

Price (mil USD) / US $PSF

PROPERTY NAME

PROPERTY TYPE

NET YIELD (%)

BUYER

SELLER

DATE

Land at Thu Duc City

Tam Luc Real Estate

Gamuda Land

Residential

315

-

Q3 2023

CAPITAL MARKETS ANALYSIS

New Binh Trung Real Estate Company Limited

Land in Thu Duc City

1. OFFICE: Grade A office rental growth is expected to slow, as tightened fiscal strategy among tenants continues and competition among landlords remains fierce. With new supply entry, competition among Grade A landlords is heightened. Some projects take the current slowdown as an opportunity to renovate and upgrade their property and be ready for the future market recovery. 2. RETAIL: The prevalence of experiential retail drives developers and retailers to enhance their retail space. Prime and/or well-managed properties continue to attract tenants’ leasing interest.

3. LOGISTICS: Slight growth. Capital focused on developing RBF & RBW for lease to utilize the benefits from large manufacturer’s relocation, amid the limited land availability. 4. RESIDENTIAL: Stable due to with global economic stagnation. Both developer and buyers remain hold-and-see and wait for approval and implementation of new land law. The average primary price of future launch projects will continue to rise due to the increasing land price upon limited land bank situation and rising development cost. Key source of housing demand are still from affordable and mid-end segment.

Keppel Land

Residential

-

-

Q3 2023

Capri by Fraser Ho Chi Minh, and Ibis Saigon South

EverLand Opportunities IX Limited

SHREIT

Hotel

33/ NA

-

Q2 2023

Source: RCA, Cushman & Wakefield Research

26

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