Outlook 2023 Greater China

KEY MESSAGES SHANGHAI

SUPPLY

DEMAND

RENTS

KEY OUTLOOK

 Over 2.1 million sq m of new supply is forecast to enter Shanghai’s Grade A office market in 2023. Considering strict pandemic prevention policy measures this year, many landlords delayed the completion of projects to 2023.  In 2024, more new supply is expected to be completed in the city’s core submarkets.

 Lock-down periods in 2022 resulted in reduction in leasing demand. Thus, net absorption is expected to reach 718,562 sq m in 2022. With a more stable economic environment, net absorption may rise to 767,185 sq m in 2023.  Given considerable new supply in 2023 and 2024, vacancy is expected to edge up to over 20%, from around 16% in 2022.  The market will remain tenant

 Rents have been under

 In core areas, several prime office projects are scheduled to complete. Simultaneously, the development of high quality office buildings will be accelerated in some emerging commercial areas along the Huangpu River, which will attract more quality tenants given the improved commercial environment and surrounding amenities.

pressure in 2022. Given the considerable amount of new supply in emerging submarkets, the annual rental growth is likely to range from -0.2% to -1.9% through to 2024.  The monthly rental may dip slightly from RMB248 per sq m at the end of 2022 to RMB243 per sq m at the end of 2023.

favorable for the next few quarters given the current economic and office market environments.