Logistics & Industrial Capital Markets 2024 Outlook Report

Economic growth to slow in 2024, albeit a recession appears unlikely More broadly, economic growth has slowed to 2.1% year-on-year to September 2023 and is expected to slow further in 2024 to 1.2% (Oxford Economics). As per Moody’s Analytics, the probability of a recession in Australia over the next 12 months has come off recent peaks and now stands at less than 5.0%. This and other economic indicators suggest that the Australian economy is set to experience a soft

landing in 2024. In contrast, key markets such as the US are set to fall into recession in 2024, with real GDP growth of -0.3% expected. A downside risk to the Australian economy is the outlook for economic growth in China. Since the GFC, China has been the main recipient of Australia’s exports, receiving circa one third of total export volumes. With several forecasters anticipating GDP growth in China to fall below 5.0% in 2024 and 2025, this will weigh on exports.

Figure 5. Australia GDP Growth Forecast

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Dec-2011

Dec-2017

Dec-2021

Dec-2015

Dec-2013

Dec-2019

Dec-2023

Dec-2025

Dec-2007

Dec-2005

Dec-2003

Dec-2009

Source: ABS, RBA, Cushman & Wakefield

CAPITAL MARKETS 2024 OUTLOOK | 8