Australian Economic Outlook 2025

High interest rates

Productivity Boom

Stagflation

Secular Stagnation

Bubble or Recovery

Low interest rates

High growth

Low growth

Productivity needs to improve to achieve the increases in prosperity experienced in the 1990s

4 5

15

10

3

2

5

0 1

0

-1 YoY %

-5

Index Value

-3 -2

-10

-4

-5

-15

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

GDP

Forecast

Business Confidence (Annual Average, RHS)

Australia

USA

114

112

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Current employment level is nearly 500,000 above the pre-pandemic trend

Indicator

2024

2025

2026

2027

GDP

1.0%

2.3%

2.7%

2.7%

GDP per capita

-0.5%

1.1%

1.5%

1.4%

Population

2.0%

1.3%

1.2%

1.2%

Employment

2.5%

1.8%

1.3%

1.5%

Unemployment Rate

4.0%

4.4%

4.4%

4.4%

WPI

3.7%

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

CPI

3.2%

2.8%

3.2%

2.5%

Cash Rate (End of Year)

4.35%

3.85%

3.35%

3.35%