Asia Pacific Office Outlook 2024

BRISBANE

K E Y M E S S AG E S

SUPPLY

DEMAND

RENTS

KEY OUTLOOK

 No new supply is forecast to enter the Brisbane CBD market in 2024. This marks the second consecutive year of flat supply, after just 45,000 sqm finished in 2022.  After 2024, only one project is expected to complete in 2025 (45,000 sqm, 85% pre-committed) and one in 2026 (45,000 sqm, 65% pre-committed).  Further afield, the potential for projects to go ahead as scheduled remains uncertain.

 The Brisbane CBD experienced three years of negative prime net absorption from 2019 through 2021, before rebounding to 63,000 sqm in 2022.  The strength spilled over into 2023 with net absorption of 14,000 sqm, and is expected to average 50,000 sqm in 2024 and 2025.  Robust demand and limited supply will continue to push vacancy lower to settle at 10% in 2027.

 Prime gross effective rents increased more than 10% over 2023, driven primarily by a rapid increase in face rents.  Rental growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2024 as the lack of new supply will limit the quality uplift of face rents.  However, the underlying fundamentals of the Brisbane office market remains robust, and gross effective rent growth is expected to average above 5% between 2025 and 2027.

 The redevelopment of the Eagle Street area, together with the ongoing flight to quality, will reinforce the “Golden Triangle” as the destination precinct within Brisbane’s CBD, bringing together high quality office buildings with amenity and transport infrastructure.