Why Tampa Bay
Dynamic Trends Driving Growth
TAMPA BAY Why
DYNAMIC TRENDS DRIVING GROWTH Q1 2025
#2 Best Large City to Start a Business WalletHub, 2024 Tampa Bay Snapshot About Tampa Bay The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater (MSA) on Florida's West Coast is comprised of the following counties: Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco Hernando
THE REGION CONTAINS THE 3 rd & 5 th Largest Cities in the State, Tampa and St. Petersburg WITH OVER 3.3 Million People, Tampa Bay is the 3 rd Largest MSA in the Southeast
Best Place to Live in Florida Forbes, 2024
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Contents
MARKETBEAT Office Q4 2020 TAMPA BAY
14.5% Vacancy Rate -579K YTD Net Absorption,SF $27.44 Asking Rent,PSF (Overall, All PropertyClasses)
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
ECONOMY The Tampa Bay region, which includes Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, had an unemployment rate of 5.7% in November 2020, up 30 basis points (bps) from the previous month as well as 320 bps higher than the region’s rate from one year ago. Nonagricultural employment was 1.35 million, a decrease of 56,400 jobs, or 4.0%, over the year. Three employment sectors that gained jobs year-over-year (YOY) were Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade and Other Services, adding a combined 2,600 new jobs in 2020. Leisure & Hospitality led other sectors in jobs lost last year, with 27,500 gone, followed by Professional & Business Services which had payroll declines of 9,000 positions. Office using employment in Tampa Bay remained impacted by overall economic conditions as area companies reassessed space needs. SUPPLY Overall vacancy ended the fourth quarter at 14.5%, an increase of 360 bps when compared to the end of 2019. Class A vacancy rose by 180 bps YOY to 14.2% with space in Class B climbing by 30 bps to 15.9%. Multiple blocks of vacant sublease space came to the market in 2020 as well as new construction deliveries. Both negatively impacted Tampa Bay’s vacancy rate in the last six months. Over 570,000 square feet (sf) was delivered in 2020, the most in annual deliveries since 2008. In the CBD, Heights Union West and Sparkman Wharf delivered, adding 307,000 sf of new office product. In the Northwest submarket, the 115,000-sf Renaissance Center VII delivered completely vacant. Close to 1.0 million square feet (msf) was currently under construction at the yearend, split between projects in the CBD and Westshore submarkets. DEMAND New leasing demand for 2020 between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties was off by 59% compared to the level of activity in 2019. Only 500,000 sf of the 2.1 msf in total leasing volume occurred in the last six months of the year. Both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties recorded the least amount of quarterly leasing activity in the last 12 years. Class A buildings year-to-date (YTD) had the most leasing activity, accounting for over 1.1 msf compared to 741,000 sf in Class B assets. Absorption trended downward through the year, recording approximately -579,000 sf YTD almost all from suburban submarkets. The Tampa CBD recorded positive absorption of 122,000 sf on tenants moving in in Class A space while St. Petersburg CBD recorded -6,194 sf on minimal move ins/move outs. MARKET PRICING Overall asking rents increased 3.5% YOY to $27.44 per square foot (psf) full service. For Class A assets, rental gains achieved cycle highs in the third quarter, rising to $30.81 psf, up 1.9% YOY and the third consecutive quarter Class A asking rents averaged above $30.00 psf in Tampa Bay. In the last 12-months, gains in the Tampa/Hillsborough market were up 5.3% to $29.00 psf while overall rents contracted in Pinellas County by 4.4% to $24.66 psf.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q4 2020
5.7% Tampa Bay MSA UnemploymentRate 1.3M Tampa Bay MSA Employment
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
6.7% Related Insights Cushman & Wakefield Research reports analyze economic and commercial real estate activity including supply, demand and pricing trends at the statewide, market and submarket levels. U.S. Unemployment Rate SPACE DEMAND /DELIVERIES -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 2016 2017 2018 Net Absorption, SF Construction Completions, SF 2019 2020 Thousands $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 2016 Source:BLS. Numbers above are monthly figures, FL Dept. Economic OPP.
OVERALL VACANCY &ASKINGRENT
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20%
16%
12%
2017
8%
2018
Asking Rent, $ PSF
4%
2019
2020
0%
Vacancy Rate
Migration Hot Spot
Historic Population
Net Migration
Projected Growth
80k
3.7M
3.5M
3.6M
2.0 %
3.4M 1.7 %
70k
3.4M
60.5k
3.6M
60k
1.5 %
3.5M
3.3M
50k
3.5M
38.0k
1.0 %
40k
3.2M
3.2M
30k
3.4M
0.5 %
3.1M
20k
3.3M
10k
3M
0.0 %
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Population
Growth %
Net Migration
Population
#4 IN THE NATION FOR NET MIGRATION FROM 2019 – 2024
668k
600k
484k
383k
343k
400k
330k
315k
264k
246k
221k
188k
186k
173k
165k
155k
153k
150k
149k
200k
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
San Jose, CA
Chicago, IL
New York, NY
0
Dallas, TX
Houston, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Tampa, FL
Atlanta, GA
Austin, TX
Orlando, FL
Charlotte, NC
San Antonio, TX
Jacksonville, FL
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
Raleigh, NC
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Nashville, TN
Lakeland, FL
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
−82k
−200k
−170k
−191k
−400k
−427k
−473k
−600k
−800k
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Net Migration (2019 – 2024)
Projected Net Migration (2025 – 2030)
Industry Diversity
135k Total Businesses
65.9% White Collar
17.7% Blue Collar
16.4% Services
Business Summary BY NAICS (%)
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Tampa
U.S.
0.0 %
5.0 %
10.0 %
15.0 %
20.0 %
Professional & Business Services
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Government
Financial Activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Other Services
Information
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Skilled & Growing Workforce
Labor Force
Unemployment Rate
1.75M
8.0 %
1.7M
1.7M
6.0 %
5.6 %
1.65M
TAMPA BAY IS #4 Hottest Job Market in the United States. Wall Street Journal, 2024
4.0 %
1.6M
3.7 %
1.55M
2.0 %
1.5M
1.5M
IN 2024
0.0 %
1.45M
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TAMPA RANKS AMONG THE TOP 10 METROS FOR LARGEST GAIN OF COLLEGE GRADUATES AT 56% -Hire A Helper, 2024
Nearly 44% OF THE TOTAL POPULATION IS 20–54 YEARS OLD. Moody's Analytics
1.7M Employed Workers
#4 BEST CITY FOR STARTUPS IN 2024 -Home Bay
ESRI
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Work Life Balance
Four Professional Sports Teams
-2023 ONE OF TIME MAGAZINE'S 50 "WORLD'S GREATEST PLACES"
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2021 SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Rowdies
BASEBALL
2020 & 2021 STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS
SOCCER
THE TAMPA RIVERWALK #2 of America's Top 10 Riverwalks USA Today - 2023
15 Beaches Including St. Pete Beach TRIPADVISOR'S #1 RANKED BEACH IN THE US - 2023
83° average annual temperature
TOP BEER CITY
5M Visitors PER YEAR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
60+ Craft Breweries in the Tampa Bay Region
golfing fishing boating
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Education
Top Colleges BY ENROLLMENT FALL 2024
NEARLY 80 LOCAL COLLEGES AND HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS ARE PREPARING GRADUATES WITH THE SKILLS OUR LOCAL JOB MARKET DEMANDS
75%
University of South Florida 48,732 Hillsborough Community College 30,221 St. Petersburg College 23,501 Polk State College 14,515 University of Tampa 11,429 Southeastern University 10,534 Pasco-Hernando State College 9,167 State College of Florida 8,588
of graduates at local post-secondary institutions end up staying in Florida, A MAJORITY WITHIN THE TAMPA BAY REGION.
Millennials are the second largest labor base in Florida.
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FL'S MUMA COLLEGE OF BUSINESS
offers comprehensive undergraduate and graduate degrees to meet the needs of Tampa Bay's financial and professional services industry.
THE UNIVERSITY OF TAMPA
>175,000 students attend one of the numerous, distinguished educational institutions in the Tampa Bay Area.
Sykes College of Business, a top 25 best value business school, according to Business Insider. One of the best full-time MBA programs as ranked by Bloomberg Businessweek.
Florida Southern College 3,194
#1
Best State for Higher Education Eight Years in a Row U.S. News & World Report, 2024
Eckerd College 1,986
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Logistics & Transportation
Map Layer Options
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Rail & Intermodal
Ports
Highways
Metropolitan Areas
Major Airports
Map Legend
Sea Port Tampa Bay - Florida's largest port by size and tonnage contributes $17B in economic impact supporting more than 85k jobs. Port St. Pete - Only megayacht marina on Florida's Gulf Coast. SeaPort Manatee - One of Florida's largest and fastest-growing deepwater seaports. The closest U.S. deepwater cargo seaport to the expanded Panama Canal. Rail Tampa Bay offers 500 miles of active railroad and siding track. After connecting South FL to Orlando, the high speed Brightline rail will expand west to Tampa.
Land Excellent Interstate Connectivity via I-4, I-75, and I-275. More than 35M consumers live within an 8-hr drive of Tampa Bay. Sky 2 international airports - nearly 25M passengers per year. Multiple projects Complete: • Major main terminal renovation • 66 shops and restaurants • 1.4-mile automated people mover extending to a multi level rental car facility • Award-winning Blue Express Curbsides • Nine-story office complex and numerous public art installations, including a world-famous 21-foot pink flamingo in the Main Terminal. TPA is the #2 large airport in J.D. Power's North American Airport Satisfaction Survey.
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
New-to-Market Tenant Demand
Seattle
Ark Invest Axogen
Camas
DoubleLine Capital Dynasty Financial Partners Fisher
Boston
New York
Chicago
Indianapolis
San Francisco
Inverstments Foot Locker ID.me OPSWAT Pfizer Rapid7 Signode Spot Freight
McClean
Glendale
Tampa Continues to Draw a Wide Array of New-To-Market Companies Including: FINANCIAL SERVICES | TECH | HEALTHCARE | LAW
Relocation
Expansion
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
New Development
HEIGHTS DISTRICT TAMPA
$3.5B+ INVESTMENT
$1.0B MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT
Phase II CONDOMINIUM TOWER TAILORED OFFICE SPACE FOR KEY TENANT MIXED-USE AREA INCORPORATING A HOTEL AND ENTERTAINMENT OFFERINGS, INCLUDING A LIVE PERFORMANCE VENUE
260 KSF PROPOSED 14-STORY OFFICE TOWER HEIGHTS 201
50 AC MIXED-USE RIVERFRONT DEVELOPMENT
56 AC COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL HOSPITALITY RETAIL
23 AC APARTMENTS DUAL-FLAG HOTEL
430 KSF UNDER
CONSTRUCTION OFFICE TOWER MIDTOWN EAST
OFFICE RETAIL
DELIVERED 2020 | 100% LEASED 230,000 SF WATERFRONT OFFICE & RETAIL
DELIVERED 2021 | 89% LEASED NEW GLOBAL HQ FOR RELIAQUEST
DELIVERED 2021 | 100% LEASED 150,000 SF OFFICE MIDTOWN WEST
DELIVERED 2021 | 100% LEASED 72,000 SF BOUTIQUE OFFICE BUILDING
DELIVERED 2020 | 100% LEASED TWO 150,000 SF OFFICE TOWERS HEIGHTS EAST & HEIGHTS WEST
NOTABLE TENANTS
NOTABLE TENANTS
NOTABLE TENANTS
RELIAQUEST
RAPID7
BRADLEY
PRIMO WATER
KFORCE
TECO
PFIZER
AXOGEN DOUBLELINE
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Office Market Snapshot Q1 2025 40.5 MSF
Tampa Bay Inventory
CLASS A CLASS B 24.0 MSF 16.5 MSF Class A Spotlight
TAMPA CBD
4.8 MSF Inventory
12.8% Overall Vacancy
$45.81 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
WESTSHORE
7.6 MSF Inventory
15.6% Overall Vacancy
$41.11 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
TAMPA BAY OVERALL
I-75 CORRIDOR
4.2 MSF Inventory
27.3% Overall Vacancy
$28.23 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
SUPPLY & DEMAND
DIRECT RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
35.0%
$32.00
4.0M
30.0%
$31.00
ST. PETERSBURG CBD
3.0M
$30.00
25.0%
1.3 MSF Inventory
9.3% Overall Vacancy
$41.88 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
2.0M
$29.00
20.0%
1.0M
$28.00
15.0%
0.0M
$27.00
10.0%
GATEWAY 19.3% Overall Vacancy
-1.0M
$26.00
5.0%
2.2 MSF Inventory
$28.02 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
-2.0M
$25.00
0.0%
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 YTD
1Q20
1Q21
1Q22
1Q23
1Q24
1Q25
Leasing Activity
Construction Completions
Overall Absorption
Direct Rental Rate
Overall Vacancy
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
19 Industrial Market Snapshot 84.0 MSF Warehouse/Distribution 13.8 MSF Office Services/Flex
Q1 2025
75
WESTSIDE
NORTH PINELLAS
275
589
4
PLANT CITY
60
24.9 MSF Manufacturing
275
GATEWAY / MID PINELLAS
SOUTH TAMPA
92
Submarket Spotlight
EASTSIDE
EASTSIDE 4.9% Direct Vacancy
SOUTH PINELLAS
53.2 MSF Inventory
$10.95 Direct Rent (NNN/SF)
TAMPA BAY OVERALL
WESTSIDE
75
14.4 MSF Inventory
5.8% Direct Vacancy
$13.73 Direct Rent (NNN/SF)
SUPPLY & DEMAND
DIRECT RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
10.0M
7.0%
$12.00
6.0%
PLANT CITY
8.0M
$11.00
5.0%
$10.00
6.0M
18.2 MSF Inventory
11.8% Direct Vacancy
$8.00 Direct Rent (NNN/SF)
4.0%
$9.00
4.0M
3.0%
$8.00
2.0M
2.0%
GATEWAY/MID-PINELLAS
$7.00
1.0%
0.0M
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 YTD
$6.00
0.0%
25.8 MSF Inventory
5.2% Direct Vacancy
$10.90 Direct Rent (NNN/SF)
1Q20
1Q21
1Q22
1Q23
1Q24
1Q25
Leasing Activity
Construction Completions
Overall Absorption
Direct Rental Rate
Overvall Vacancy
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
Multifamily Market Snapshot 176,137 UNITS Tampa Bay Inventory
Q1 2025
EFFECTIVE RENT VS STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE
ABSORPTION VS COMPLETIONS
STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE Excludes Properties Still In Their Initial Lease-Up Period 93.3%
8.0k
$ 2.0k
100 %
$ 1.8k
98 %
6.0k
$ 1.6k
96 %
4.0k
Effective Rents Increased 33.5% Over the Past Five Years ENDING 1Q25 AT $1,900 PER UNIT
$ 1.4k
94 %
2.0k
$ 1.2k
92 %
0.0k
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 YTD
8,311 Units Under Construction
$ 1.0k
90 %
1Q20
1Q21
1Q22
1Q23
1Q24
1Q25
Effective Rent Per Unit
Stabilized Occupancy Rate
Construction Completions
Overall Net Absorption
29,841 Units Delivered Since 2020
Over $15.0 Billion In Sales since 2020, WITH 2021 SETTING A RECORD $5.2 BILLION
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Tampa Bay
CoStar Data Depicted
Market Leads
Authors
SOURCES
www.lightcast.io/ www.census.gov Chief Executive Magazine, 2022, Biz2Credit Tax Foundation, 2021 Niche 2020
Moody's Analytics www.flgov.com www.aaroads.com ESRI
www.enterpriseflorida.com tampabayedc.com www.towncharts.com www.census.gov www.univstats.com www.collegeevaluator.com
©2025 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representation as to its accuracy. Cushman & Wakefield does not claim any ownership rights to the corporate logos featured in Why Tampa and their usage in this research report is strictly for illustrative and informative purposes. Why Tampa is intended for limited distribution.
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