Why Orlando - CW 2023 Q2-RFS
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ORLANDO Why
DYNAMIC TRENDS DRIVING GROWTH Q2 2023
Orlando Snapshot
The Orlando – Kissimmee – Sanford (MSA) in Central Florida is comprised of the following counties: Seminole
ORLANDO
About Orlando
SEMINOLE
Orange Osceola
ORANGE
OSCEOLA
Ranked 40th Best City in the World. #1 in Florida and #10 in the U.S.
Resonance "Best Cities"
WITH NEARLY 2.8 Million People, the Orlando Region is the 4 th Largest MSA in the Southeast
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Contents
MAR K E T B E AT Office Q2 2023 ORLANDO
14.4% Vacancy Rate -330K YTD Net Absorption, SF $26.46 Asking Rent, PSF (Overall, All PropertyClasses)
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
ECONOMY Orlando had an unemployment rate of 2.6% in Q2 2023, 10 basis points (bps) lower than the rate one year ago and well below the national rate. Job growth held in Orlando despite the current economic slowdown, as nonagricultural employment grew by 50,300 jobs, or 3.6% year-over- year (YOY). The region had the highest annual job growth in leisure and hospitality out of Florida’s maj or markets, with 28,800 jobs added. Office-using employment gained 5,200 new jobs YOY, a 1.3% rise. DEMAND Orlando recorded 714,000 square feet (sf) of leasing activity in the second quarter, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) total to 1.2 million square feet (msf). Quarterly activity was up slightly YOY by 1.3% and up 54.8% from the previous quarter. Suburban submarkets significantly outperformed downtown with 86.3% of leasing activity in Orlando occurring outside of the urban core for Q2. This was bolstered by the Lake Mary/Heathrow submarket, which recorded Orlando’s first transaction above 150,000 sf in 13 quarters. Leasing activity in Class A assets accounted for 59.6% of the YTD total as tenants continued to target premium and amenity rich space to motivate return-to-office initiatives. SUPPLY Overall vacancy increased 120 bps YOY to 14.4%, up 20 bps from the previous quarter after remaining stable for much of 2022. The Orlando market recorded a single delivery in Q2 for the University/ Research Park submarket. The 68,700-sf building at 12700 Ingenuity Drive was occupied by Astronics Test Systems, resulting in 17,900 sf of positive absorption as the tenant relocated from a smaller space in the same submarket. The next largest occupancy of the quarter was Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) move into a 60,000-sf Lake Mary building at 701 International Parkway. Meanwhile, Lake Mary also housed the largest new vacancy of Q2 as BNY Mellon vacated its space at 100 Colonial Center Parkway. The company is relocating in the same market, with a deal signed in June for nearly 200,000 sf at 600 Colonial Center Parkway, estimated to be fully moved in by fourth quarter. PRICING Asking rate averages rose 2.9% YOY to $26.46 per square foot (psf) full service gross (FSG). Rents in Class A assets closed out the quarter at $28.60 psf FSG overall, up 1.6% YOY. Continued leasing of premium Class A space flattened YOY growth, as higher valued asking rents came off the market. Landlords appeared to hold firm or even push asking rates upward to combat increasing operating costs.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q2 2023
1.4M Orlando Employment
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
2.6%
Orlando Unemployment Rate
3.6% Related Insights Cushman & Wakefield Research reports analyze economic and commercial real estate activity including supply, demand and pricing trends at the statewide, market and submarket levels. U.S. Unemployment Rate -1,500 -1,000 Thousands -500 0 500 1,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YTD Net Absorption, SF Construction Completions, SF $20 $21 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26 $27 2019 SPACE DEMAND / DELIVERIES Source: BLS, FL Dept. Economic OPP
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OVERALL VACANCY & ASKING RENT
20%
16%
12%
2020
8%
2021
Asking Rent, $ PSF
4%
2022
0%
2023
Vacancy Rate
Migration Hot Spot
Historic Population
#2 Population Growth by Percentage
7.9M
2.1M
3.0 %
8M
7.3M
2.05M
2.5 %
6.2M
6M
5.0M
2.0 %
2.00M
1.5 %
4M
3.3M
2.8M
2.8M
2.7M
2.4M
1.95M
2.3M
1.0 %
2M
0.5 %
1.90M
1.9M
0.0 %
0
Austin, TX
Orlando, FL
Dallas, TX
San Antonio,
Tampa, FL
Charlotte, NC
Houston, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Atlanta, GA
Las Vergas,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
#7 IN THE NATION FOR NET MIGRATION FROM 2017 – 2022
600k
486k
400k
276k
271k
269k
267k
229k
224k
175k
166k
200k
149k
130k
127k
123k
112k
86k
62k
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Chicago, IL
New York, NY
0
Dallas, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Tampa, FL
Austin, TX
Houston, TX
Atlanta, GA
Orlando, FL
Charlotte, NC
San Antonio, TX
Jacksonville, FL
North Port, FL
Raleigh, NC
Nashville, TN
Lakeland, FL
South Florida, FL
Seattle, WA
−200k
−158k
−343k
−400k
−600k
−556k
−594k
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Net Migration (2017 – 2022)
Projected Net Migration (2023 – 2026)
Industry Diversity
340k + Total Businesses
63.1% White Collar
18.7% Blue Collar
18.1% Services
Business Summary BY NAICS (%) Orlando U.S.
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0.0 %
5.0 %
10.0 %
15.0 %
20.0 %
25.0 %
Leisure & Hospitality
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Government
Financial Activities
Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Information
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Skilled & Growing Workforce
Unemployment Rate
Labor Force
1.45k
1.4k
10.0 %
1.4k
ORLANDO IS AMONG The Top Ten Metro Areas With the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the United States. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8.0 %
1.35k
7.3 %
1.3k
6.0 %
1.25k
4.0 %
2.9 %
1.2k
1.2k
2.0 %
1.15k
1.1k
IN 2022, Florida Ranked #1 For Talent Attraction
0.0 %
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
*Values are Annual Averages
*Values are Annual Averages. Peaked in May 2020 at 22.1%
Nearly 41% OF THE TOTAL POPULATION IS 25–54 YEARS OLD. ESRI
1.4M Employed Workers
+14.5% Education Attainment
+4.3% Job Growth
+12.2% Skilled Job Growth
20 Skilled Job Openings
2017–2021
Per 1,000
ESRI
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Tourism
ORLANDO NAMED
50.2M Orlando International Airport Volume
1.4M Orlando County Convention Center
129.5k
THEME PARK CAPITAL OF THE WORLD Disney, Universal and SeaWorld's theme parks combined for 73M+ attendance in 2022 UP 25% YOY
The Largest U.S. Travel & Tourism City Destination for 2022 USA TODAY
Hotel Rooms
2022 YEAR END
2022 YEAR END
ORLANDO'S MASSIVE TOURISM PRESENCE BRINGS BUSINESS INTEREST, WITH NEW-TO-MARKET COMPANIES BOTH NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
7 of the Nation's Top 10 THEME PARKS BY ANNUAL ATTENDANCE
74M VISITORS IN 2022
#1
#10
#3
#7
#4
#6
#5
25% YOY GROWTH
Brightline's Imminent Opening Offers Additional Access from Florida's Southern Markets
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Work Life Balance
Vibrant Night Life
DOWNTOWN ORLANDO
DISNEY SPRINGS
Ranked 40th Best City in the World & 10th in the U.S. Resonance "Best Cities"
THEME PARKS 7 MAJOR PARKS
UNIVERSAL CITYWALK
Five Professional Sports Teams
82°- 64° average annual temperature
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
Orlando City SC
Orlando Solar Bears
Orlando Guardians
Orlando Pride
Orlando Magic
SOCCER
HOCKEY
FOOTBALL
SOCCER
BASKETBALL
golfing
fishing
boating
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Education
#1 Best College City in America for
Top Colleges BY ENROLLMENT 2022
Mid-Size Cities & 3 rd Overall Nationally 2023 WalletHub Best College Town & City ranking
University of Central Florida 70,310 Valencia College 43,599 Full Sail University 25,622 Seminole State College 15,315 Florida Institute of Technology 7,830 Lake Sumpter State College 4,342 Rollins College 3,057 AdventHealth University 1,667 Florida Polytechnic Institute 1,563
25+ Educational Attainment 2022
UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA 8th Most Innovative University in the Nation – U.S. News & World Report
11.8%
College of Business Named Among the Princeton Reviews List of "Best Business Schools for 2023" (list was not ranked)
22.8%
12.7%
>170k students attend one of the numerous, distinguished educational institutions in the Orlando area.
17.6%
ROLLINS COLLEGE Princeton Review recognized the Winter Park School as one of the nation's 50 "Best Valued" private colleges and universities.
21.5%
4.2%
6.1%
3.2%
Graduate/Professional Degree
High School Graduate
Bachelor's Degree
GED/Alternative Credit
35+ local colleges and higher education institutions preparing graduates with market-demand skills
Associate Degree
9th-12th Grade, No Diploma
Some College, No Degree
Less than 9th Grade
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Logistics & Transportation
Map Layer Options
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Rail & Intermodal
Ports
Highways
Metropolitan Areas
Major Airports
Map Legend
Rail Brightline's Orlando opening is imminent, with ticket sales currently available for September 2023. The high speed train will connect Orlando to Florida's southern markets. Orlando's SunRail is a commuter rail service with 16 stations across greater Orlando. Sky 2 International Airports - Orlando International Airport (MCO) and Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB). MCO recorded nearly 50.2 million travelers throughout 2022, a 24% increase annually. MCO's Terminal C expansion was finished in 2022, greatly improving the airport's ability to handle the surge of traffic post travel shutdown.
Sea 60 minutes to Port Canaveral.
Close access to deep water container port and cruise ship access.
Land Orlando's central location supports logistical distribution advantages to service the entire state. I-4's Ultimate Improvement Project nears completion, with I-4 Express now open.
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
New-to-Market Tenant Demand
Astronics
Checkr
Boston
New York
Chicago
CMG Cleantech
Maryland
San Francisco
Paris
Denver
Dnata
Irvine
Dubai
Optivor
Spartan
Orlando Continues to Draw a Wide Array of New-To-Market Companies Both Nationally and Internationally
VillageMD
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
New Development
S O C I E T Y O R L A N D O
TOWN CENTER
Over $2 Billion IN NEW DEVELOPMENT
$70 Million INVESTMENT (PHASE 1 COMPLETED IN 2016)
$85 Million INVESTMENT
900 KSF OFFICE / CREATIVE
41 KSF COMMERCIAL
68 AC MIXED-USE
28 STORY TOWER ONE + 17 STORY TOWER TWO
4 MSF COMMERCIAL RETAIL HOSPITALITY
+5 KSF MEETING & EVENT SPACE
436KSF 4 OFFICE BUILDINGS 120k SF PROPOSED
800 KSF HIGHER EDUCATION
867 RESIDENTIAL UNITS
166 KSF ORLANDO STUDIO + 2k Game Developers PROFESSIONALS AND STUDENTS
200–Room DUAL-BRANDED COURTYARD BY MARRIOTT & RESIDENCE INN
Q3 23 DELIVERY
100 KSF RETAIL / COMMERCIAL
828 SPACE PARK GARAGE
2,000+ RESIDENTIAL UNITS
153 KSF CLASS A MEDICAL OFFICE
279 KSF OFFICE DELIVERING Q3 23
Three Phase MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT IN THE HEART OF CBD
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Office Market Snapshot Q2 2023 36.0 MSF Orlando Inventory
CLASS A 21.4 MSF
CLASS B 14.6 MSF
Class A Spotlight
SUPPLY & DEMAND
ORLANDO CBD
3.0M
7.2 MSF Inventory
15.0% Overall Vacancy
$29.38 Overall Rent (FS/SF)
2.0M
1.0M
AIRPORT / LAKE NONA
0.0M
1.3 MSF Inventory
12.7% Overall Vacancy
$33.27 Overall Rent (FS/SF)
−1.0M
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
LAKE MARY / HEATHROW
Leasing Activity
Construction Completions
Overall Absorption
4.5 MSF Inventory
19.9% Overall Vacancy
$27.06 Overall Rent (FS/SF)
OVERALL RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
MAITLAND 18.8% Overall Vacancy
5.6 MSF Inventory
$27.80 Overall Rent (FS/SF)
$ 25
14 %
12 %
$ 20
10 %
$ 15
TOURIST CORRIDOR / CELEBRATION 6.2 MSF Inventory 12.8% Overall Vacancy $30.19 Overall Rent (FS/SF) UNIVERSITY / RESEARCH PARK 4.1 MSF Inventory 12.1% Direct Vacancy $27.68 Overall Rent (FS/SF)
8 %
6 %
$ 10
4 %
$ 5
2 %
$ 0
0 %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
Overall Rental Rate
Overall Vacancy
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Industrial Market Snapshot Q2 2023
Submarket Spotlight 13.2 MSF Manufacturing 12.2 MSF Office Services/Flex 89.1 MSF Warehouse/Distribution
SUPPLY & DEMAND
12.0M
10.0M
8.0M
6.0M
4.0M
2.0M
AIRPORT / LAKE NONA
0.0M
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
22.0 MSF Inventory
1.9% Overall Vacancy
$8.63 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
Leasing Activity
Construction Completions
Overall Absorption
LAKE MARY / SANFORD
8.3 MSF Inventory
3.1% Overall Vacancy
$9.06 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
OVERALL RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
ORLANDO CENTRAL PARK
$ 12
8 %
$ 10
22.0 MSF Inventory
3.2% Overall Vacancy
$9.20 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
6 %
$ 8
$ 6
4 %
REGENCY / TURNPIKE
$ 4
2 %
16.9 MSF Inventory
1.7% Overall Vacancy
$8.88 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
$ 2
$ 0
0 %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
SILVER STAR / APOPKA
Overall Rental Rate
Overall Vacancy
16.7 MSF Inventory
5.4% Overall Vacancy
$9.33 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
EFFECTIVE RENT VS STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE Multifamily Market Snapshot Q2 2023 195,000 UNITS Orlando Inventory
ABSORPTION VS COMPLETIONS
90.9% STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE Excludes Properties Still In Their Initial Lease-Up Period
$ 2.0k
15.0k
94 %
$ 1.5k
92 %
10.0k
$ 1.0k
Effective Rents Increased 39% Over the Past Five Years ENDING Q2 2023 AT $1,806 PER UNIT
90 %
5.0k
$ 0.5k
88 %
0.0k
Over 24,300 Units Under Construction AT MIDYEAR 2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
$ 0.0k
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
Effective Rent Per Unit
Stabilized Occupancy Rate
Construction Completions
Overall Net Absorption
43,106 Units Delivered SINCE Q2 2018
Over $22.7 Billion In Sales Over The Past 5 Years WITH 2021 ACCOUNTING FOR $7.2 BILLION
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
CoStar Data Depicted
Retail Market Snapshot 154.0 MSF Total Retail
Q2 2023
SUPPLY & DEMAND
Product Type Spotlight
2M
4
1.5M
MALLS
1M
13.8 MSF Inventory
7.6% Overall Vacancy
$38.07 Overall Rent (NNN)
LAKE
SEMINOLE
500k
POWER CENTERS
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
10.5 MSF Inventory
3.9% Overall Vacancy
$28.23 Overall Rent (NNN)
ORANGE
Construction Completions
Direct Absorption
NEIGHBORHOOD CENTERS
47.1 MSF Inventory
5.7% Overall Vacancy
$26.53 Overall Rent (NNN)
OVERALL RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
4
OSCEOLA
STRIP CENTERS
$ 30
5 %
$ 25
9.3 MSF Inventory
2.8% Overall Vacancy
$26.17 Overall Rent (NNN)
4 %
$ 20
3 %
$ 15
GENERAL RETAIL
2 %
$ 10
1 %
69.9 MSF Inventory
2.0% Overall Vacancy
$34.96 Overall Rent (NNN)
$ 5
$ 0
0 %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
OTHER
Overall Rental Rate
Overall Vacancy
3.4 MSF Inventory
1.6% Overall Vacancy
$27.80 Overall Rent (NNN)
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
CoStar Data Depicted
Market Leads
SOURCES
TownCharts univstats.com U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Visit Orlando Wallet Hub WorldsBestCities.com WUSF News
Florida Review Lightcast.io MacroTrends.net Moody's Analytics Niche 2020 OrlandoAirports.net Orlando Business Journal Tax Foundation, 2021
aaroads.com Business.Orlando.org Chief Executive Magazine,
2022 Biz2Credit CollegeEvaluator CoStar Enterprise Florida ESRI flgov.com
Authors
©2023 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representation as to its accuracy. Cushman & Wakefield does not claim any ownership rights to the corporate logos featured in Why Orlando and their usage in this research report is strictly for illustrative and informative purposes. Why Orlando is intended for limited distribution.
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