Why Orlando
Dynamic Trends Driving Growth
ORLANDO Why
DYNAMIC TRENDS DRIVING GROWTH Q1 2024
Orlando Snapshot
The Orlando – Kissimmee – Sanford (MSA) in Central Florida is comprised of the following counties: Seminole
ORLANDO
About Orlando
SEMINOLE
Orange Osceola
ORANGE
OSCEOLA
#1 Best Large City to Start a Business
WalletHub, 2024
WITH OVER 2.8 Million People, the Orlando Region is the 4 th Largest MSA in the Southeast
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Contents
MARKETBEAT Office Q2 2023 ORLANDO
14.4% Vacancy Rate -330K YTD Net Absorption,SF $26.46 Asking Rent,PSF (Overall, All PropertyClasses)
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
ECONOMY Orlando had an unemployment rate of 2.6% in Q2 2023, 10 basis points (bps) lower than the rate one year ago and well below the national rate. Job growth held in Orlando despite the current economic slowdown, as nonagricultural employment grew by 50,300 jobs, or 3.6% year-over- year (YOY). The region had the highest annual job growth in leisure and hospitality out of Florida’s maj or markets, with 28,800 jobs added. Office-using employment gained 5,200 new jobs YOY, a 1.3% rise. DEMAND Orlando recorded 714,000 square feet (sf) of leasing activity in the second quarter, bringing the year-to-date (YTD) total to 1.2 million square feet (msf). Quarterly activity was up slightly YOY by 1.3% and up 54.8% from the previous quarter. Suburban submarkets significantly outperformed downtown with 86.3% of leasing activity in Orlando occurring outside of the urban core for Q2. This was bolstered by the Lake Mary/Heathrow submarket, which recorded Orlando’s first transaction above 150,000 sf in 13 quarters. Leasing activity in Class A assets accounted for 59.6% of the YTD total as tenants continued to target premium and amenity rich space to motivate return-to-office initiatives. SUPPLY Overall vacancy increased 120 bps YOY to 14.4%, up 20 bps from the previous quarter after remaining stable for much of 2022. The Orlando market recorded a single delivery in Q2 for the University/ Research Park submarket. The 68,700-sf building at 12700 Ingenuity Drive was occupied by Astronics Test Systems, resulting in 17,900 sf of positive absorption as the tenant relocated from a smaller space in the same submarket. The next largest occupancy of the quarter was Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) move into a 60,000-sf Lake Mary building at 701 International Parkway. Meanwhile, Lake Mary also housed the largest new vacancy of Q2 as BNY Mellon vacated its space at 100 Colonial Center Parkway. The company is relocating in the same market, with a deal signed in June for nearly 200,000 sf at 600 Colonial Center Parkway, estimated to be fully moved in by fourth quarter. PRICING Asking rate averages rose 2.9% YOY to $26.46 per square foot (psf) full service gross (FSG). Rents in Class A assets closed out the quarter at $28.60 psf FSG overall, up 1.6% YOY. Continued leasing of premium Class A space flattened YOY growth, as higher valued asking rents came off the market. Landlords appeared to hold firm or even push asking rates upward to combat increasing operating costs.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q2 2023
1.4M Orlando Employment
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
2.6%
Orlando Unemployment Rate
3.6% Related Insights Cushman & Wakefield Research reports analyze economic and commercial real estate activity including supply, demand and pricing trends at the statewide, market and submarket levels. U.S. Unemployment Rate -1,500 -1,000 Thousands -500 0 500 1,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YTD Net Absorption, SF Construction Completions, SF $20 $21 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26 $27 2019 SPACE DEMAND /DELIVERIES Source: BLS, FL Dept. Economic OPP
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OVERALL VACANCY & ASKINGRENT
20%
16%
12%
2020
8%
2021
Asking Rent, $ PSF
4%
2022
0%
2023
Vacancy Rate
Migration Hot Spot Historic Population #2 OUT OF THE 30 LARGEST MSAS IN THE U.S. for Population Growth by Percentage from 2022-2023
Net Migration
Projected Growth
2.8M
3.2M
80k
2.85M
3.0 %
3.2M
70k
2.8M
2.5 %
3.1M
58.2k
60k
2.4 %
2.75M
2.0 %
49.6k
50k
3M
2.7M
2.9M
1.5 %
40k
2.65M
2.9M
2.6M
1.0 %
30k
2.6M
2.8M
0.5 %
20k
2.55M
2.7M
10k
2.5M
0.0 %
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Population
Growth %
Net Migration
Population
#7 IN THE NATION FOR NET MIGRATION FROM 2018 – 2023
600k
497k
400k
314k
279k
276k
273k
248k
232k
179k
166k
148k
200k
137k
135k
133k
110k
102k
100k
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
33k
Chicago, IL
New York, NY
0
Dallas, TX
Houston, TX
Austin, TX
Tampa, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Atlanta, GA
Orlando, FL
Charlotte, NC
San Antonio, TX
Jacksonville, FL
Raleigh, NC
North Port, FL
Nashville, TN
Lakeland, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Miami, FL
Seattle, WA
−200k
−164k
−339k
−400k
−600k
−551k
−688k
−800k
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Net Migration (2018 – 2023)
Projected Net Migration (2024 – 2027)
Industry Diversity
121k Total Businesses
63.5% White Collar
18.9% Blue Collar
17.7% Services
Business Summary BY NAICS (%) Orlando U.S.
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0.0 %
5.0 %
10.0 %
15.0 %
20.0 %
Leisure & Hospitality
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education & Health Services
Government
Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Information
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Skilled & Growing Workforce
Unemployment Rate
Labor Force
1.5k
1.5k
8.0 %
1.45k
6.0 %
1.4k
ORLANDO IS #3 Hottest Job Market in the United States. Wall Street Journal, 2024
1.35k
1.3k
4.0 %
3.1 %
3.0 %
1.3k
2.0 %
1.25k
1.2k
IN 2023, Florida Ranked #1 For Talent Attraction
0.0 %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
*Values are Annual Averages
*Values are Annual Averages. Peaked in May 2020 at 22.1%
WITH THE ORLANDO AREA COMPRISING TWO OF THE TOP 50 COUNTIES
Nearly 41% OF THE TOTAL POPULATION IS 25–54 YEARS OLD. ESRI
1.5M Employed Workers
#38 Lake County
#41 Osceola County
ESRI
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Tourism
ORLANDO NAMED
57.7M Orlando International Airport Volume
1.5M Orlando County Convention Center
130k+
The Largest U.S. Travel & Tourism City Destination.
Hotel Rooms
#3 Best Business Travel Destination in the U.S.
2023 YEAR END
2023 YEAR END
WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL
ORLANDO'S MASSIVE TOURISM PRESENCE BRINGS BUSINESS INTEREST, WITH NEW-TO-MARKET COMPANIES BOTH NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Booking.com, 2023
THEME PARK CAPITAL OF THE WORLD WITH 7 OF THE NATION'S TOP 10 THEME PARKS BY ANNUAL ATTENDANCE
74M VISITORS IN 2022
#1
#10
#3
#7
#4
#6
#5
25% YOY GROWTH
Brightline Orlando Station now open, offering additional access from Florida's southern markets.
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Work Life Balance
Vibrant Night Life
DOWNTOWN ORLANDO
DISNEY SPRINGS
Ranked 11th Best City in the U.S. and 52nd in the World Resonance "Best Cities"
THEME PARKS 7 MAJOR PARKS
UNIVERSAL CITYWALK
Four Professional Sports Teams
82°- 64° average annual temperature
#1 Food City in the U.S. WalletHub, 2023
Orlando Solar Bears
Orlando Pride
Orlando City SC
Orlando Magic
HOCKEY
SOCCER
SOCCER
BASKETBALL
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Education
#2 Best College City in America for Large Cities & 3 rd Overall Nationally 2023 WalletHub Best College Town & City ranking
Top Colleges BY ENROLLMENT 2023
University of Central Florida 68,442 Valencia College 47,626 Eastern Florida State College 18,562 Seminole State College 14,813 Daytona State College 12,728 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University 8,119 Lake-Sumter State College 5,133 Florida Institute of Technology 5,043 Full Sale University 4,353 Rollins College 3,029
25+ Educational Attainment 2023
UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA 8th Most Innovative University in the Nation – U.S. News & World Report
12.6%
College of Business Named Among the Princeton Reviews List of "Best Business Schools for 2023" (list was not ranked)
23.6%
12.5%
>170k students attend one of the numerous, distinguished educational institutions in the Orlando area.
17.2%
ROLLINS COLLEGE Princeton Review recognized the Winter Park School as one of the nation's 50 "Best Valued" private colleges and universities.
21.5%
4.3%
5.1%
3.2%
Graduate/Professional Degree
High School Graduate
Bachelor's Degree
GED/Alternative Credit
35+ local colleges and higher education institutions preparing graduates with market-demand skills
Associate Degree
9th-12th Grade, No Diploma
Some College, No Degree
Less than 9th Grade
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Logistics & Transportation
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Rail & Intermodal
Ports
Highways
Metropolitan Areas
Major Airports
Map Legend
Rail Brightline's Orlando station is now open. The high speed train offers convenient connectivity to Florida's southern markets. Orlando's SunRail is a commuter rail service with 16 stations across greater Orlando. Sky 2 International Airports - Orlando International Airport (MCO) and Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB). MCO recorded over 57.7 million travelers throughout 2023, a 15% increase annually, with international travel up 27%. MCO's Terminal C expansion was finished in 2022, greatly improving the airport's ability to handle the surge of traffic post travel shutdown.
Sea 60 minutes to Port Canaveral.
Close access to deep water container port and cruise ship access.
Land Orlando's central location supports logistical distribution advantages to service the entire state. Florida DOT has $2.4B in I-4 express lane expansion planned over the next 10 years.
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
New-to-Market Tenant Demand
CMG Cleantech
Enklu - Verse Immersive
Boston
Rocket Technology
Chicago
Maryland
San Francisco
Paris
Standard Motor Products Inc
Denver
Irvine
The Deluxe Group
Dubai
Kaseya IT
Hudson Procurement Group
Orlando Continues to Draw a Wide Array of New-To-Market Companies Both Nationally and Internationally
ExamRoom.AI Corp
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
New Development
ORLANDO MAGIC'S Sports & Entertainment District
TOWN CENTER
Over $2 Billion IN NEW DEVELOPMENT
$70 Million INVESTMENT (PHASE 1 COMPLETED IN 2016)
$500 Million INVESTMENT (ESTIMATED START LATE 2024)
900 KSF OFFICE / CREATIVE
200 KSF CLASS A OFFICE
68 AC MIXED-USE
4 MSF COMMERCIAL RETAIL HOSPITALITY
+5 KSF MEETING & EVENT SPACE
715 KSF 5 COMPLETED OFFICE BUILDINGS 120k SF PROPOSED
260 HOTEL ROOMS 16 KSF CONFERENCE SPACE
800 KSF HIGHER EDUCATION
270 RESIDENTIAL UNITS
166 KSF ORLANDO STUDIO + 2k Game Developers PROFESSIONALS AND STUDENTS
200–Room DUAL-BRANDED COURTYARD BY MARRIOTT & RESIDENCE INN
100 KSF RETAIL / COMMERCIAL
125 KSF RETAIL
DEVELOPERS
2,000+ RESIDENTIAL UNITS
153 KSF CLASS A MEDICAL OFFICE
1,500+ APARTMENT UNITS BY 2028
2,500 PARKING SPOTS
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Office Market Snapshot Q1 2024 36.5 MSF Orlando Inventory
CLASS A 22.0 MSF
CLASS B 14.5 MSF
Class A Spotlight
SUPPLY & DEMAND
ORLANDO CBD
3.0M
5.4 MSF Inventory
11.9% Direct Vacancy
$31.69 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
2.0M
1.0M
AIRPORT / LAKE NONA
0.0M
1.6 MSF Inventory
26.2% Direct Vacancy
$35.58 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
−1.0M
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
LAKE MARY / HEATHROW
Leasing Activity
Construction Completions
Direct Absorption
3.9 MSF Inventory
17.0% Direct Vacancy
$27.94 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
DIRECT RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
MAITLAND
3.2 MSF Inventory
15.6% Direct Vacancy
$25.70 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
$ 27
15 %
$ 26
10 %
TOURIST CORRIDOR / CELEBRATION 3.7 MSF Inventory 10.6% Direct Vacancy $30.17 Direct Rent (FS/SF) UNIVERSITY / RESEARCH PARK 2.3 MSF Inventory 10.4% Direct Vacancy $27.69 Direct Rent (FS/SF)
$ 25
5 %
$ 24
$ 23
0 %
1Q19
1Q20
1Q21
1Q22
1Q23
1Q24
Direct Rental Rate
Direct Vacancy
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
Industrial Market Snapshot Q1 2024
Submarket Spotlight 13.2 MSF Manufacturing 12.2 MSF Office Services/Flex 96.2 MSF Warehouse/Distribution
SUPPLY & DEMAND
12.0M
10.0M
8.0M
6.0M
4.0M
2.0M
0.0M
AIRPORT / LAKE NONA
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
22.8 MSF Inventory
3.6% Direct Vacancy
$10.35 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
Leasing Activity
Construction Completions
Overall Absorption
LAKE MARY / SANFORD
8.4 MSF Inventory
3.6% Direct Vacancy
$10.68 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
DIRECT RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
ORLANDO CENTRAL PARK
$ 12
8 %
$ 10
22.0 MSF Inventory
3.0% Direct Vacancy
$13.62 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
6 %
$ 8
$ 6
4 %
REGENCY / TURNPIKE
$ 4
2 %
17.9 MSF Inventory
2.8% Direct Vacancy
$8.77 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
$ 2
$ 0
0 %
1Q19
1Q20
1Q21
1Q22
1Q23
1Q24
SILVER STAR / APOPKA
Direct Rental Rate
Direct Vacancy
21.6 MSF Inventory
18.6% Direct Vacancy
$7.49 W/D Rent (NNN/SF)
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
EFFECTIVE RENT VS STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE Multifamily Market Snapshot Q1 2024 207,098 UNITS Orlando Inventory
ABSORPTION VS COMPLETIONS
93.1% STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE Excludes Properties Still In Their Initial Lease-Up Period
$ 2.0k
97 %
15.0k
96 %
$ 1.5k
95 %
10.0k
$ 1.0k
94 %
Effective Rents Increased 25.5% Over the Past Five Years ENDING Q1 2024 AT $1,756 PER UNIT
5.0k
93 %
$ 0.5k
92 %
0.0k
18,153 Units Under Construction AT END OF Q1 2024
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
$ 0.0k
91 %
1Q19
1Q20
1Q21
1Q22
1Q23
1Q24
Effective Rent Per Unit
Stabilized Occupancy Rate
Construction Completions
Overall Net Absorption
55,891 Units Delivered SINCE 2019
Over $20.7 Billion In Sales Over The Past 5 Years WITH 2021 RECORD-SETTING $7.2 BILLION
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
CoStar Data Depicted
Retail Market Snapshot 157.7 MSF Total Retail
Q1 2024
SUPPLY & DEMAND
Product Type Spotlight
3M
4
2.5M
MALLS
2M
1.5M
14.2 MSF Inventory
4.5% Overall Vacancy
$38.88 Overall Rent (NNN)
LAKE
1M
SEMINOLE
500k
POWER CENTERS
0
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
10.6 MSF Inventory
3.3% Overall Vacancy
$29.96 Overall Rent (NNN)
ORANGE
Construction Completions
Overall Net Absorption
NEIGHBORHOOD CENTERS
47.2 MSF Inventory
4.9% Overall Vacancy
$27.44 Overall Rent (NNN)
DIRECT RENTAL & VACANCY RATES
4
OSCEOLA
STRIP CENTERS
$ 30
7 %
6 %
$ 25
9.4 MSF Inventory
3.0% Overall Vacancy
$27.28 Overall Rent (NNN)
5 %
$ 20
4 %
$ 15
3 %
GENERAL RETAIL
$ 10
2 %
72.7 MSF Inventory
2.0% Overall Vacancy
$27.74 Overall Rent (NNN)
$ 5
1 %
$ 0
0 %
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 YTD
OTHER
Direct Rental Rate
Direct Vacancy
3.4 MSF Inventory
1.8% Overall Vacancy
$37.68 Overall Rent (NNN)
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Orlando
CoStar Data Depicted
Market Lead
SOURCES
TownCharts univstats.com U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Visit Orlando Wallet Hub WorldsBestCities.com WUSF News
Florida Review Lightcast.io MacroTrends.net Moody's Analytics Niche 2020 OrlandoAirports.net Orlando Business Journal Tax Foundation, 2021
aaroads.com Business.Orlando.org Chief Executive Magazine,
2022 Biz2Credit CollegeEvaluator CoStar Enterprise Florida ESRI flgov.com
Authors
©2023 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representation as to its accuracy. Cushman & Wakefield does not claim any ownership rights to the corporate logos featured in Why Orlando and their usage in this research report is strictly for illustrative and informative purposes. Why Orlando is intended for limited distribution.
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