Why Florida - CW 2023 Q2 RFS
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FLORIDA Why
DYNAMIC TRENDS DRIVING GROWTH Q2 2023
FLORIDA Why
AN INTERACTIVE LOOK AT DYNAMIC TRENDS DRIVING GROWTH
Its unique blend of a diverse economy, business-friendly policies, access to talent, and strategic location as a gateway to the Americas and Caribbean has proven Florida is a place where you can thrive both personally and professionally.
Florida is projected to surpass 23.0 million residents before the end of this decade.
Florida has led the country in new business formations with more than 1.7 million created since January 2020 – over one-third of those being launched in 2022.
Over the past decade, Florida became the 3rd most populated state and ranked #1 for net migration in the U.S. for the sixth consecutive year.
In the past five years, Florida's population increased by nearly 1.3 million people, growing over 6.0% to over 22.2 million residents.
Population growth coupled with the state's ports and strong ties to the Latin Americas and Caribbean have propelled Florida into a global player in the logistics and distribution, e-commerce and supply-chain industry segments.
Contents
MARKETBEAT
Office Q4 2022 Broward County
17.5% Vacancy Rate -42K YTD Net Absorption,SF $37.83 Asking Rent,PSF (Overall, All PropertyClasses) Absorption number is not reflective of U.S. MarketBeat YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
ECONOMY The Broward County unemployment rate was 2.5% in November 2022, 100 basis points (bps) lower than one year ago. Nonagricultural employment totaled 905,200, an increase of 36,300 jobs year-over-year (YOY). Office-using employment including Professional & Business Services, Financial Activities, and Information had a combined increase of 8,800 jobs in the last 12 months. Broward County ranked third among all Florida markets in annual office-use job growth. SUPPLY Broward County’s overall vacancy rose 30 bps from the previous quarter and 50 bps YOY to 17.5%. This marks the third consecutive quarter of vacancy increases. Class A and B vacancies rose to 18.4% and 15.6% respectively, on par with each clas s’s peak vacancy rate during the pandemic. The increase in vacancy can be contributed to the completion of construction on the Optima Onyx Tower, which brought 277,000 square feet (sf) of available space to the market, and large tenant vacancies. Humana vacated over 120,000 sf of space in the Southwest Broward submarket during the second half of 2022 while MCNA Dental vacated 81,600 sf of space in Cypress Creek at year-end. DEMAND Year-to-date (YTD) leasing activity remained healthy for 2022 despite concerns of inflation and an economic recession, down just 1.9% from last year’s post -recession high. The Central Business District (CBD) continued to show positive market indicators with 136,298 sf of positive annual absorption, bringing the overall vacancy rate down 380 bps from one year ago. Solid activity in both the CBD and Plantation submarkets helped demand outweigh supply for much of 2022. However, negative absorption during the fourth quarter pushed the yearly number into the red by just over 42,000 square feet, a slight hiccup for the market but not at levels to raise concern. MARKET PRICING Overall asking rents began to show signs of leveling, ending the year at $37.83 per square foot (psf) full service, but a 4.1% YOY increase highlights rents continuing the trajectory upward to new record highs. Asking rates in the CBD continued to be the driving factor, finishing the year at $46.30 psf, on par with averages from the previous two quarters. The depletion of higher-tier Class A office availability impacted asking averages as lower-tier availability had more of an impact on overall rates. Uncertainty in the economy and growing sublease space could see rents continue to hold level through 2023, especially in the suburban submarkets.
SELECT A TOPIC TO NAVIGATE SECTIONS
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q4 2022
905K Broward County Employment
YoY
Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
2.5% Broward County Unemployment Rate
3.7% Related Insights Cushman & Wakefield Research reports analyze economic and commercial real estate activity including supply, demand and pricing trends at the statewide, market and submarket levels. U.S. Unemployment Rate Source:BLS, FL Dept. Economic OPP -800 -600 -400 Thousands -200 0 200 400 600 800 2019 2020 2021 YTD 2022 Net Absorption, SF Construction Completions, SF $25 $27 $29 $31 $33 $35 $37 $39 2019 SPACE DEMAND /DELIVERIES
CLICKING THE HOME ICON WILL TAKE YOU BACK TO THE TABLE OF CONTENTS
OVERALL VACANCY & ASKINGRENT
20%
16%
12%
2020
8%
2021
Asking Rent, $ PSF
4%
2022
0%
Vacancy Rate
Florida Snapshot
About Florida
Capital Tallahassee
JACKSONVILLE
OUTER JACKSONVILLE
Nickname Sunshine State
OCALA
GDP: $1.4T
ORLANDO
State Tree Sabal Palm
SPACE COAST
TAMPA
State Flower Orange Blossom
#1 Best Economy IN THE UNITED STATES #2 Largest Foreign Tradezone Network IN THE UNITED STATES #3 Largest Workforce IN THE UNITED STATES #4 Overall Job Growth IN THE UNITED STATES
SARASOTA
67 Counties
PALM BEACH BOCA RATON FT LAUDERDALE
FORT MYERS
NAPLES
27 th State ADMITTED MARCH 3, 1845
MIAMI
State Bird Mockingbird
EMERGING MARKETS MAJOR MARKETS
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Florida Migration
Historic Population
Net Migration PER THOUSAND
Projected Growth
22.2M
400
23M
319
22.8M
22M
300
22.5M
21M
200
215
20M
19.6M
22M
100
19M
21.6M
21.5M
0
18M
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
#1 IN THE NATION FOR NET MIGRATION 2021 – 2022 FOR A GAIN OF 318.9k OR 874 PEOPLE PER DAY
874
500
CA NY IL NJ MA LA MD PA VA MN OR HI CT OH MI IA KS AK MS RI NE NM WA DC ND WV VT WY IN MO CO NH WI SD KY DE ME UT MT AR NV OK ID AL AZ GA TN SC NC TX FL
0
−500
−940
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Net Migration Per Day – U.S. Census (2021 – 2022)
Education
OF THE 25+ YEAR OLD POPULATION
Florida Education Attainment Breakdown
Higher Ed Attainment 100% = All People with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
89 32
% Have a High School Diploma or Higher
32%
3.0%
5.6%
19.6%
U.S. Census Bureau
47.6%
% Have a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
30%
U.S. Census Bureau
28%
24.2%
ACADEMIC YEAR 2021 – 2022
# 4 142 Four Year Colleges
98 Community Colleges
139 Trade/Vocational Schools
9%
1%
Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Doctorate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Less Than High School
Some College or Associate High School or GED
No Schooling
Professional School Degree
Associate Degree
Univstats.com
Master's Degree
Most Schools & Largest Student Population
Univstats.com 1.1M Total Student Population
Univstats.com
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Competitive Advantage
Cost of Living Comparison
Labor Pool & Talent
Sum of Cost Index
FLORIDA RANKED #15 IN WORKFORCE
TAMPA BAY BUSINESS JOURNAL
193.3 HIGHEST COST OF LIVING
BY YEAR END 2022, FLORIDA BEAT OUT NEW YORK IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY. U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
100.3
FLORIDA
83.3 LOWEST COST OF LIVING
Business Environment
#4 BEST BUSINESS TAX CLIMATE TAX FOUNDATION, 2021 EMPLOYMENT IS 10% ABOVE PRE PANDEMIC LEVEL MOODY'S ANALYTICS
#8 BEST STATE FOR BUSINESS CHIEF EXECUTIVE MAGAZINE, 2022 BIZ2CREDIT PRO-BUSINESS LOCAL & STATE GOVERNMENT NICHE 2020
% Change in Job Growth 2022 – 2023
6 %
5 %
4.9 %
Work/Life Balance
4 %
81° AVG HIGH 60° AVG LOW ENTERPRISE FLORIDA
NO STATE OR LOCAL PERSONAL INCOME TAX LOW PROPERTY TAXES COMPARED TO NORTH 11 MAJOR LEAGUE SPORTS TEAMS
3 %
2 %
1 %
0 %
NEVADA
TEXAS
FLORIDA
WASHINGTON HAWAII
TENNESSEE
OREGON
NEW YORK
NORTH CAROLINA NEW JERSEY
CALIFORNIA KANSAS
GEORGIA
ARKANSAS
SOUTH CAROLINA
PENNSYLVANIA
MASSACHUSETTS ARIZONA
NEW MEXICO IDAHO
ALASKA
VIRGINIA
OKLAHOMA
MONTANA
MISSOURI UTAH
NEW HAMPSHIRE DELAWARE ILLINOIS
INDIANA
MINNESOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA MAINE
ALABAMA IOWA
NEBRASKA
MICHIGAN
KENTUCKY
NORTH DAKOTA
CONNECTICUT WYOMING
COLORADO
LOUISIANA
VERMONT
WISCONSIN
MISSISSIPPI
RHODE ISLAND
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA OHIO MARYLAND WV
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Leisure & Hospitality
IN 2022, FLORIDA RECEIVED 137.6M Visitors LARGEST IN THE STATE'S HISTORY 12.9% FROM 2021 5.0% FROM 2019
825 Miles BEACHES STATEWIDE 8 9 MAJOR
Tourism's Impact on Florida's Economy
$ 101.9 B
$ 83.2 B
$ 100 B
$ 80 B
$ 60 B
$ 40 B
MAJOR THEME PARKS
LEAGUE SPORTS
$ 20 B
Q1 2023 VISITATION
$ 0 B
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
1.8M INTERNATIONAL 36.0% FROM Q1 2022
34.6M DOMESTIC 8 TH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER OF GROWTH
HOME TO THE WORLD'S Top 3 Cruise Ports PORT OF MIAMI
1.7M Jobs Supported By Vistor Spending
PORT CANAVERAL PORT EVERGLADES 11.0M PASSENGERS IN 2022 – THE CAPITOLIST
IN Q1 2023, FLORIDA HOTELS RECEIVED 3.9% Bookings COMPARED TO Q1 2022
70.5% STATEWIDE AVG HOTEL/MOTEL OCCUPANCY RATE IN 2022 – STR
9.4% INCREASE FROM 2021
483,431 HOTEL ROOMS
4,514 PROPERTIES
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Industry Diversity
1.1M Total Businesses
61.7% White Collar
20.1% Blue Collar
18.2% Services
EMERGING INDUSTRIES Tech/FinTech • Manufacturing in North Florida • Aerospace in Space Coast
Business Summary by NAICS (%)
Labor Force by Occupation (%)
0.0 %
5.0 %
10.0 %
15.0 %
20.0 %
25.0 %
0.0 %
2.0 %
4.0 %
6.0 %
8.0 %
10.0 %
12.0 %
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
O ce/Admin Management Sales Transportation/Moving Health Practices Food Preparation Construction/Extraction Business/Financial Education/Library Building Maintenance Health Support Maintenance/Repair Production Computer/Mathematical Protective Service Personal Care Arts/Entertainment/Rec Social Service Architecture/Engineer Legal
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Top Five
Top Five SALES 11.1% 3 7.7% 4 6.7% 5 11.6% 2 12.1% 1
TRADE, TRANS & UTILITIES 20.3% Florida 18.8% United States PRO & BUSINESS SVCS 16.7% Florida 14.7% United States EDUCATION & HEALTH SVCS 14.9% Florida 16.2% United States GOVERNMENT 11.4% Florida 14.6% United States LEISURE & HOSPITALITY 13.5% Florida 10.2% United States
OFFICE/ADMIN
1 2 3 4 5
Government
Leisure & Hospitality
MANAGEMENT
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Construction
Other Services
TRANS/MOVING
Information
Life/Social Sciences Farm/Fish/Forestry
HEALTH PRACTICES
Mining & Logging
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Logistics & Transportation
Map Layer Options
Toggle to Enable Views
Rail & Intermodal
Ports
Highways
Metropolitan Areas
Major Airports
Map Legend
Sea 15 seaports generate ~900k jobs and $117.6B in economic value. Nation's most container ports & supply chain options for retailers, manufacturers, third-party logistics and ocean carriers. Closest U.S. seaports to the Panama Canal and at the crossroads of East West & North-South trade lanes. Sky 19 passenger service airports, including 16 international airports. 10.6% of the total USA air traffic comes from Florida airports.
Rail +3.8k miles of railroad, including 2.7k mainline miles. Most fuel efficient way to move freight over land. Brightline passenger rail operates intercity service.
DWTN MIAMI
WEST PALM BEACH
TAMPA BAY FUTURE EXPANSION
ORLANDO MCO DELIVERING 3Q 2023
Land +217B miles traveled on public roads per year. 408 bridges and +3.6k miles of highway. #14 in Infrastructure
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Skilled & Growing Workforce
#1 For Attracting & Developing Skilled Workforce IN THE UNITED STATES
Labor Force
Unemployment Rate
11.0M
11M
8.0 %
Stat� Ranking� '22
7.5 %
10.5M
6.0 %
Education Attainment +14.5%
Jobs +4.3%
10M
4.0 %
2.6 %
9.5M
9.4M
2.0 %
Skilled Jobs +12.2%
Skilled Job Openings per 1,000 20
9M
0.0 %
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Over 37% of the total population is 25–54 year olds. ESRI
FLORIDA LED THE NATION IN TALENT ATTRACTION WITH FIFTEEN LARGE COUNTIES IN THE TOP 50 FLORIDA'S TOP FIVE INCLUDE:
3.7% U.S. Unemployment Rate 9.7M Employed Workers
#8 Hillsborough
#10 Polk
#12 Lee
#18 St. Johns
#20 Pasco ESRI
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
New-to-Market Tenant Demand
Redmond
PALM BEACH Goldman Sachs Millennium
Procaps Group West Marine
Camas
Management NewDay USA
Massachussets
JACKSONVILLE Consentino Group Dunn & Bradstreet IKO Industries NYMBUS
New York Connecticut
Olympus Insurance Paysafe
London
Chicago
New Jersey
Maryland
San Francisco
Colorado
Virginia
MIAMI Blackstone
Microsoft Millennium Management Subway
Citadel Kaseya Kirkland & Ellis
Glendale Irvine
ORLANDO Astronics Test Systems Checkr Dnata
Optivor Technologies Spartan Race Inc.
Dubai
Florida Continues to Draw a Wide Array of New-To-Market Companies Including: FINANCIAL SERVICES | TECH | HEALTHCARE | LAW
TAMPA DoubleLine Capital Fisher Investments
ID.me OPSWAT Pfizer Rapid7
Colombia
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Office Market Snapshot Q2 2023 188.8 MSF Statewide Inventory DIRECT VACANCY RATE 16.6 % 16.1 %
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION SF
17.4 %
341.6k
300k
14.9 %
14.6 %
15 %
200k
12.7 %
DIRECT VACANT SPACE 27.5 MSF
SUBLEASE VACANT SPACE 4.0 MSF
54.7k
54.1k
100k
9.7 %
9.6k
10 %
0k
−100k
−102.2k
5 %
−200k
−300k
−284.3k
−330.4k
5.9M Miami/Dade 4.3M Broward 2.3M Palm Beach County 5.0M Tampa/Hillsborough 1.6M Pinellas County 4.6M Orlando 3.8M Jacksonville
198.9k Miami/Dade 392.3k Broward 386.0k Palm Beach County 1.8M Tampa/Hillsborough 164.1k Pinellas County 634.6k Orlando 455.8k Jacksonville
0 %
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
LEASING ACTIVITY SF
21.7 %
1.2M
1.1M
19.5 %
20 %
18.1 %
923.9k
1000k
16.2 %
DIRECT WTD AVG RENTAL RATE $35.48 PSF
OVERALL WTD AVG RENTAL RATE $34.80 PSF
15.4 %
804.9k 779.4k
14.4 %
15 %
800k
11.4 %
600k
10 %
438.4k
400k
198.7k
5 %
200k
$50.61 Miami/Dade $38.35 Broward
$50.44 Miami/Dade $38.24 Broward
0 %
0k
$45.19 Palm Beach County $30.58 Tampa/Hillsborough $25.21 Pinellas County $26.46 Orlando $22.76 Jacksonville
$45.17 Palm Beach County $31.89 Tampa/Hillsborough $25.19 Pinellas County $26.29 Orlando $22.88 Jacksonville
Construction
Miami/Dade
Broward
190.4 KSF 3.0 MSF
Tampa/Hillsborough
Palm Beach County
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS
Pinellas County
Orlando
Jacksonville
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Industrial Market Snapshot Q2 2023 710.4 MSF Statewide Inventory DIRECT VACANCY RATE 5 % 5.2 %
OVERALL NET ABSORPTION SF
2.8M
2.5M
4.1 %
3.8 %
4 %
2M
DIRECT VACANT SPACE 20.4 MSF
SUBLEASE VACANT SPACE 2.3 MSF
1.7M
3.3 %
1.5M
1.5M
2.7 %
1.3M
3 %
2.6 %
2.5 %
1M
2 %
1.6 %
511.6k
500k
195.0k
128.3k
1 %
0
−35.3k
2.7M
Miami/Dade
Miami/Dade
68.1k
0 %
DIRECT WTD AVG RENTAL RATE $10.72 PSF Palm Beach County 3.4M Tampa/Hillsborough 1.2M Pinellas County 3.5M Lakeland/Polk 2.8M Orlando 2.8M Jacksonville 2.4M Broward 1.5M
467.9k Broward 56.3k Palm Beach County 360.7k Tampa/Hillsborough 261.1k Pinellas County 11.1k Lakeland/Polk 557.4k Orlando 484.7k Jacksonville
OVERALL VACANCY RATE
LEASING ACTIVITY SF
5.2 %
3.5M
3.5M
5 %
4.5 %
3.0M
3.0M
4.0 %
3.9 %
OVERALL WTD AVG RENTAL RATE $10.61 PSF
2.5M
4 %
2.5M
2.2M
3.2 %
3.1 %
2.9 %
3 %
2.0M
1.5M
1.1M
2 %
1.6 %
833.4k
1.0M
514.9k
457.6k
1 %
0.5M
$14.18 Miami/Dade $15.31 Broward
$14.18 Miami/Dade $15.03 Broward
0 %
0.0M
$15.60 Palm Beach County $8.50 Tampa/Hillsborough $10.31 Pinellas County $7.07 Lakeland/Polk $10.90 Orlando $8.06 Jacksonville
$15.23 Palm Beach County $8.59 Tampa/Hillsborough $10.28 Pinellas County $7.07 Lakeland/Polk $10.73 Orlando $7.62 Jacksonville
Construction
Miami/Dade
Broward
Lakeland
9.3 MSF 25.8 MSF
Tampa/Hillsborough
Palm Beach County
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS
Pinellas County
Orlando
Jacksonville
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
Multifamily Market Snapshot Q2 2023 948,000 UNITS Across 3,500 Properties EFFECTIVE RENT VS STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE
ABSORPTION VS COMPLETIONS
93.7%
80k
$ 2.0k
100 %
STABILIZED OCCUPANCY RATE Excludes Properties Still In Their Initial Lease-Up Period
$ 1.8k
60k
95 %
$ 1.6k
40k
90 %
Over $92.7 Billion In Sales Over The Past 5 Years
$ 1.4k
20k
85 %
$ 1.2k
0k
Sales Reached $32 Billion in 2021, representing 34.5% of Total Sales in The Past 5 Years
$ 1.0k
80 %
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 YTD
Effective Rent Per Unit
Stabilized Occupancy Rate
Construction Completions
Overall Net Absorption
Sales Volume Increased 135% From Year End 2018 – 2022
Over 144,000 Units Under Construction
Cushman & Wakefield | Why Florida
CoStar Data Depicted
Market Leads
Authors
SOURCES
The Capitolist TownCharts univstats.com U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Visit Florida
Lightcast.io Moody's Analytics National Association of Realtors Niche 2020 STR Tampa Bay EDC Tax Foundation, 2021
aaroads.com Chief Executive Magazine, 2022 Biz2Credit CoStar Enterprise Florida ESRI flgov.com
Contributors
Josh Faircloth Research Manager | Tampa +1 813 424 3220 joshua.faircloth@cushwake.com
Connor Salzman Research Analyst | Ft. Lauderdale +1 954 377 0493 connor.salzman@cushwake.com
Cam Sousa Research Analyst | Orlando +1 407 241 3088 cameron.sousa@cushwake.com
Tyler Petrich Design Lead | Tampa +1 813 465 7041 tyler.petrich@cushwake.com
©2023 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representation as to its accuracy. Cushman & Wakefield does not claim any ownership rights to the corporate logos featured in Why Florida and their usage in this research report is strictly for illustrative and informative purposes. Why Florida is intended for limited distribution.
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