Where Do U.S. Property Values Go From Here?

Odds of a Recession Rising Fast United States

Implied Probability Based On Interest Rate Spreads

*Economist Survey: When do you estimate the next recession?

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

38%

50% say recession by end of 2023

0% 5%

0 5

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jan-19 10-Yr & 2-Yr Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

H1 2023

H2 2023

H1 2024

H2 2024

Don't know

End of 2022

2025 or later

Source: Federal Reserve, NABE Panelist of Economists Survey (May 2022)

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