U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

Key measures of inflation are still running too hot

Core Inflation (Less Food & Energy)

Supercore Inflation (Core Services Excluding Shelter)

7%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Supercore CPI Y/Y

Estimated Fed Target

Core CPI Y/Y

Estimated Fed Target

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Shelter costs lag in terms of their impact on CPI inflation. *The Fed’s estimated target for Core CPI is 2.5%; an estimated target for supercore is not widely or formally noted from the Fed, but 3.0% is provided as a reference point.

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