U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies
Buy-side: strong vintage years follow periods of dislocation Rolling five-year forward returns (all-property)
120%
“Peak Pricing” or “Leading into Downturn” Vintage Years, but still Positive Cumulative Returns
Strong Vintage Years
Strong Vintage Years
• The age-old adage still holds…. • Periods following times of dislocation are typically great vintage years for investment. • Periods of acute uncertainty offer opportunities for those that are nimble, with deployable capital and with an ability to identify relative value, distress or long-term growth potential . • Now is also an opportune
Strong Vintage Years
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
time to consider actualizing returns (and creating liquidity for future buying opportunities) for high quality asses that remain in favor for lenders.
-20%
-40%
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
5 Year Cumulative Total Return
Annual Total Return
61
Source: NCREIF, Cushman & Wakefield Research
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