U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

It’s all about the 10-Year (Treasury) Interest rates are not going back to the zero-bound

Most economists expect the 10-year Treasury yield to settle in the 3.5-4% range on the other side of the recession as this is consistent with long-run nominal GDP growth

16

Forecast

14

12

10

8

6

4

3.5%

2

0

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985 Concensus

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

2025

C&W's Baseline

52

Source: Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Cushman & Wakefield Research. Note: Figures are year-end.