U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

C&W’s Baseline Glide Path Glide path timeline for key indicators

Macroeconomic Indicator Financial Markets Indicator CRE Fundamentals Indicator CRE Debt Markets Indicator CRE Capital Markets Indicator

CRE Credit Starts to Thaw and Flow

CRE Supply Pipeline Subsides Amid Uncertain Environment and Constrained Lending Consumer Spending Eases

Wage Growth Starts Cooling

Capital Markets Transactions Gain Momentum

CRE Demand Formation Slows Across OFC, IND, RET, MF Sectors

Consumer, Business Confidence Gradually Improve

2.5 Million Job Losses Hit Labor Market

Core Inflation Improves to 3%

Excess Savings Dwindles RECESSIONARY CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD

10Y Trends Towards 4.0% (High 3s% Thereafter  ) Values Start to Rebound 

Credit Tightening Continues

Property Values Adjust ~25-50% Peak-to-Trough

Fed Pivots and Starts Rate Cutting Cycle

Core Inflation Hovers At the 5%-Range

2023 Q3 / Q4

2024 Q1

2024 Q2

2024 Q3

2024 Q4

3

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research