U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

Allowing the Fed to pivot in Q1 2024

6.0

Fed starts to lower rates as core inflation comes down and unemployment rises

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

2021Q3

2021Q4 Fed Funds Rate (%) 2022Q1 2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q1

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

2025Q1

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

Estimated Neutral Fed Funds Rate

17

Source: Federal Reserve, Cushman & Wakefield Research