U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

Glide path to inflation approaching Fed target Inflation gets “close enough” to target by year-end 2023

7

6.3

6.3

Supply chain issues continue resolving

6

5.6

Base effects kicking in

4.8

5

4.1

Recession demand destruction

3.7

4

Lagging housing impact

Wage growth cools

3.0

2.7

3

2.4

2

2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2

1

0

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

2021Q3

2021Q4

2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4

2023Q1

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q4

2024Q1

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

2025Q1

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

Core CPI (Y/Y % Change)

Estimated Fed Target

16

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research