U.S. Capital Markets Glide Path to Clearer Skies

Wage growth must cool to bring inflation down

BLS Employment Cost Index

Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker

8%

8%

7%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Employment Cost Index

Estimated Fed Target

Overall

College Degree Prime-age Workers (ages 25 to 54)

10

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Cushman & Wakefield Research