Turkey Real Estate Market Overview Half Year 2022

MARKET INDICATORS

GDP

INFLATION

INTEREST RATE UNEMPLOYMENT

Growth rates are expected to remain positive until year end following first quarter economic growth.

Remained constant in July and announced at 14% for the seventh time.

The downward trend continued in May, and this rate is expected to remain stable for the end of the year.

The trend in inflation is expected to continue.

The Ukraine-Russia war in the 5th month and ongoing negative impact of the pandemic continue to disrupt global supply chains. This is leading to food and energy price increases. The caused inflation continues to rise at a rate higher than seasonal effects, and as of June, annual inflation was recorded at 78.62% in Turkey. Minimum wage has been raised by 25%, effective from 1 July 2022, and the new net minimum wage has been determined as ₺ 5,500 net to reduce the negative impact of inflation. Inflation is expected to decrease in 2022 but remain at double-digit levels. The pressure on the foreign exchange supply continues to increase due to the concern that the increase in consumer prices will continue. As a precaution, many countries, especially the FED, announced policy rate hikes. In addition, the effect of the war increased European recession concerns, causing the Euro to depreciate. Accordingly, it is anticipated that the contractionary monetary policy will continue within the scope of inflation measures. Turkey, on the other hand, kept the CBRT’s policy rate constant by announcing 14% for the seventh time in July. The dollar Exchange rate, on the other hand, continued its upward trend in the first half of the year and it is expected that this trend will continue in 2022 in the current economic environment. Rising energy and commodity prices continue to increase inflation pressure Recession concerns on the rise

Growth (Q3)

7.3%

FX 14.83

16.22

89% y/y

71% y/y

13%

8% q/q

q/q

Inflation 78.6%

Unemployment (October) 10.9%

Turkish economy to continue growth trend

The Turkish economy grew by 7.3% in the first quarter. Fitch Ratings’ has raised its growth forecast from 2.4% to 4.5% for Turkey in 2022 expecting the growth rate to reach 3% for 2023. Moody’s Analytics, on the other hand, left its forecast for the Turkish economy unchanged and announced a 3.5% growth, predicting a 4% growth for 2023. On the other hand, the IMF revised Turkey’s 2022 growth forecast by raising it from 2.7% to 4% and announced that it increased its 2023 growth forecast from 3% to 3.5%. In addition, the consumer confidence index continued its downward trend since March last year and was announced at 63.36 in June, breaking this trend in July and recording 68.03 with an increase of 7.4%. The economic confidence index, on the other hand, decreased by 3.3% in June 2022 to 93.6. In June 2022, compared to the previous month; decreased from 121.7 to 119.6 in the service sector and from 121.4 to 118.7 in retail trade; In the construction sector, an increase was recorded from 81.6 to 83.

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