Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | Canada

Tariffs Will Spike, then Drift Lower U.S. Effective Tariff Rate on All Goods Imports, %

Impact on CRE

• Tariffs are clearly a big part of why there has been a spike in uncertainty and market volatility. • The initially announced reciprocal tariffs (April 2) were paused for 90 days on April 9, and tariffs on China were raised to 145%. The net impact was an increase in the overall effective tariff rate. • As of April 24, we estimate the effective tariff rate — think of it as the average tariff rate on all imports into the U.S. — to be around 25%, up from 3% on January 20, 2025. • These are only static assumptions, meaning they assume import volumes remain unchanged. Dynamically, we expect imports from China to plummet which will effectively lower the overall tariff rate to around 17.5%. rate will gradually come down as the economic damage mounts and as trade deals are negotiated. • Tariff policy is changing rapidly, and occupiers and investors alike should consider multiple potential scenarios to ensure adequate preparedness. • Our baseline assumes that the effective tariff

30

Effective Tariff Rate (C&W Baseline), %

Liberation Day (Apr 2)

25.4

25

90-day pause, China increase to 145% (Apr 9)

20.5

20

Tariffs slowly fall off in 2026 as trade deals are negotiated

17.5

15

July 1 2026: USMCA renewal

Effective tariff rate climbs from 1.5% to 3%

10

Trump’s second term

Trump’s first term

5

0

2015Q1

2015Q3

2016Q1

2016Q3

2017Q1

2017Q3

2018Q1

2018Q3

2019Q1

2019Q3

2020Q1

2020Q3

2021Q1

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2022Q1

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2023Q1

2023Q3

2024Q1

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2025Q1

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2026Q1

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2027Q1

2027Q3

Source: Moody’s Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research

Cushman & Wakefield