Trump 2.0: The First 100 Days | Canada

Executive Summary

The Economy

Property

• In the first 100 days, we have observed a hard shift in economic policy under President Trump . From trade policy to immigration, DOGE to tax and spending policy — the Trump Administration has been busy. • Given the flurry of changes, the word that dominated the marketplace in the first 100 days was uncertainty. • The Canadian economy has remained resilient so far, but the policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on some of the leading indicators pointing to slower growth ahead . • Recession odds are rising and short-term stagflation — meaning slowing economic growth and sticky inflation — is emerging as the new consensus for 2025. A stronger growth scenario is forming for 2026 . • The situation remains fluid with many developments still unfolding, and there may be both potential benefits and drawbacks to these policy changes that will unfold over time.

• The property sector has largely remained resilient through the first 100 days. The leasing fundamentals held mostly steady while the capital markets were still finding their way but showing flashes of early green shoots. • Industrial and retail will be most impacted by the tariffs, but overall, the leasing fundamentals are expected to remain resilient. Assuming no recession, our base case calls for a near-term slowdown in occupier demand, with upside materializing in 2026. • Rising construction costs will put some upward pressure on costs and slow the construction pipeline which was already slowing going into 2025. Existing assets will likely benefit on a relative basis . • It will continue to be a bumpy road for the capital markets in 2025. In addition to the price recalibration, investors will also need to navigate through the tariff uncertainty. As the uncertainty fades, the recovery in the debt and capital markets will resume and gain more pace in 2026.

Cushman & Wakefield