Submarket Snapshot_4Q2023_Industrial_Interactive
DENVER INDUSTRIAL Q4 2023 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
BOULDER
In Q4 2023 we spotlight the three most active Denver Industrial Submarkets, CLICK BELOW TO OPEN THE REPORTS!
I-76 CORRIDOR
NORTH
E470
76 INTERSTATE
NORTH CENTRAL North Central Denver
AIRPORT
NORTHWEST
25 INTERSTATE
NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH North Denver
70 INTERSTATE
70 INTERSTATE
SOUTH CENTRAL
AIRPORT Northeast Denver
25 INTERSTATE
SOUTHWEST
SOUTHEAST
E470
DENVER METRO
INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT NORTH CENTRAL
KEY TAKEAWAYS
4Q23 LEASING & ABSORPTION
Though sustained demand for strategic infill locations coupled with rising construction costs have contributed to rent growth in the North Central submarket over the last several years, the direct asking rate experienced a contraction of $0.30 QOQ in Q4 2023. Following a significantly higher-than-average leasing performance in Q2 2023 (814,000 sf), the North Central submarket experienced a drop-off in leasing volume in Q3 and Q4 2023, recording just over 210,000 sf in leases signed in Q4. However, with 1.7 msf in leasing activity through 2023, North Central remains the second most-active submarket in the Denver Metro. The North Central submarket recorded negative absorption for the second consecutive quarter, resulting in a 17-bps increase in overall vacancy QOQ. However, due to steady demand and the relative lack of supply, North Central vacancy remains 320 bps below the market-wide average. With the commencement of Phase I of Quantum 56--which features 3 buildings totaling over 580,000 sf—the North Central pipeline has grown to just over 1.4 msf. However, while several fully-capitalized speculative projects remain in the pipeline, construction activity is likely nearing it’s peak due to rising costs and lack of available land. ASKING RENTS
20,500 4Q23 LARGEST LEASE 123,100 4Q23 LARGEST MOVE-OUT
-105,900 4Q23 ABSORPTION 212,100 4Q23 LEASING ACTIVITY
2023 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
LARGEST SALES TRANSACTION
TOTAL SALES TRANSACTION
AVERAGE CAP RATE
AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $11.06 (ALL TYPES) AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $10.67 ( W/D ) AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $13.72 (FLEX)
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
Q4 2023
QOQ CHANGE
DIRECT VACANCY (ALL CLASSES)
3.4%
NO CHANGE
UNDER CONSTRUCTION 1,415,500 SF
3.6%
20 bps
VACANCY (W/D)
6.6%
130 bps
VACANCY (FLEX)
PROPOSED INDUSTRIAL 733,800 SF*
SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY
433.1 KSF
36.4 ksf
*buildings estimated to deliver in the next 5 years
INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CENTRAL MARKET
4Q 2023
3Q 2023
4Q 2022
Inventory (SF)
59,652,910
59,652,910
59,652,910
Under Construction (SF)
645,676
1,415,460
1,411,397
Direct Vacancy (all product types)
4.4%
3.4%
3.4%
Direct Vacancy – Warehouse/Distribution
3.6%
3.4%
5.0%
Direct Vacancy – Flex
6.6%
7.9%
6.1%
Sublease Availability
239,531
433,125
396,705
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate (all product types)
$10.10
$11.06
$11.36
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate – Warehouse/Distribution
$9.48
$10.67
$11.00
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate – Flex
$13.82
$13.72
$13.61
Net Absorption – Current Qtr. (SF)
-105,908
-55,123
273,236
Net Absorption – YTD (SF)
813,425
508,533
614,441
Leasing Activity – Current Qtr. (SF)
320,180
212,333
288,576
Leasing Activity – YTD (SF)
1,940,817
1,691,082
1,478,749
RENTAL RATE VS. VACANCY RATE
LEASING ACTIVITY VS. ABSORPTION
(400,000) (200,000) - 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
$8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00 $12.00
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%
Direct Gross Rental Rate
Overall Rental Rate (NNN)
Leasing Activity Net Absorption
Direct Vacancy
Overall Vacancy
INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT NORTH CENTRAL
KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS 4Q 2023
CARA STAMP Research Manager Tel: +1 303 218 3258 cara.stamp@cushwake.com ETHAN WESLAR Research Analyst Tel: +1 720 560 8970 ethan.weslar@cushwake.com
DATE LEASED
PROPERTY
TENANT
SIZE (SF)
DEAL TYPE
LEASE TYPE
Nov-23
5501 E. 47th Avenue
Snyder’s
36,100
Renewal
Direct
Oct-23
5151 N. Bannock Street
Frozen Food Express
33,100
Renewal
Direct
Jul-23
Freeway Industrial Center
The Beautiful Opco, LLC
30,000
New Lease
Direct
KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS YTD 2023 DATE SOLD PROPERTY BUYER / SELLER
SIZE (SF)
SALE PRICE
PRICE/SF
May-23
Central Connection Comunale Properties / EverWest Real Estate Investors 194,700
$39.6M
$203/SF
KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
EST. COMPLETION
PROPERTY
OWNER / DEVELOPER SIZE (SF)
MAJOR TENANTS
Quantum 56 - Phase I, Bldgs. 1-3
Hines
Sep-24
580,000
N/A
Broadway Logistics Center
Lovett Industrial
Feb-24
201,300
N/A
Pivot Denver - Bldgs. 1-4
Westfield
Feb-24
472,800
Total Tool
A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 50,000employees in over 400 offices and approximately 60 countries. In 2021, the firm had revenue of $9.4 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter. ©2023 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
HISTORICAL LEASING ACTIVITY
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
cushmanwakefield.com
500,000
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT NORTH DENVER
KEY TAKEAWAYS With just 86,500 sf in new construction completions in Q4 2023, the direct vacancy rate remained flat QOQ, but ended 500 bps higher than Q2 2023. The size of the submarket is only 10.7 MSF, so any significant amount of new spec product that delivers will noticeably increase vacancy. The North submarket experienced a considerable decrease in leasing activity QOQ, recording just 32,600 sf in Q4 2023. However, the submarket remains active, with a number of new leases expected to be completed in Q1 2024. The construction pipeline in the North submarket increased to just over 1.4 msf in Q4 2023, driven by the commencement of three buildings each at Innovate 25 and 25 Commerce Park totaling 300,500 and 454,000 square feet, respectively. ASKING RENTS Nearly 2.3 msf of new product has delivered in the North submarket over the past two years. This, coupled with steady demand, continues to push lease rates up as more tenants look to relocate to new, highly desirable Class A product. Although material shortages and build-out delays continue to impact commencement dates, net absorption in the North submarket recovered slightly, posting 121,651 sf after negative absorption in Q3 2023.
4Q23 LEASING & ABSORPTION
25,100 4Q23 LARGEST LEASE 20,500 4Q23 LARGEST MOVE-OUT
121,700 4Q23 ABSORPTION 32,600 4Q23 LEASING ACTIVITY
2023 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
LARGEST SALES TRANSACTION
TOTAL SALES TRANSACTION
AVERAGE CAP RATE
AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $11.35 (ALL TYPES) AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $11.50 ( W/D) AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $12.83 (FLEX)
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
Q4 2023
QOQ CHANGE
DIRECT VACANCY (ALL TYPES)
UNDER CONSTRUCTION 1,414,000 SF
13.7%
30 bps
16.8%
60 bps
VACANCY (W/D)
3.0%
20 bps
VACANCY (FLEX)
PROPOSED INDUSTRIAL 190,100 SF*
SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY
93.9K
41.5K
*buildings estimated to deliver in the next 5 years
INDUSTRIAL 2Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT NORTH DENVER 4
NORTH MARKET
2Q 2023 4
1Q 2023 3
2Q 2022 4
Inventory (SF)
8,189,918 76 322
10,145,003 7 7, 29
9,775,681 10 660,579
Under Construction (SF)
949,972 1, 13, 83
1,147,944 221 833
527,140 1,364,669
Direct Vacancy (all Classes)
11.3% 8 8
product types)
9.6% 13.7
7.9%
14.0
Direct Vacancy – Warehouse/Distribution
13.9% 7.8
9.3% 16.8
7.8% 16.2
Direct Vacancy – Flex
3.7% 2 2
2.1% 3.0
3.9% 2 8
Sublease Availability
68,707 83 5
155,943 93, 11
137,417 5 39
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate (all product types)
$12.71 1.35
$11.68 9
$14.84 11.2
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate – Warehouse/Distribution
$10.65 00
$10.96 1.50
$10.00 11.5
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate – Flex
$15.76 2 57
$14.41 1.49
$14.46 3 8
Net Absorption – Current Qtr. (SF)
63,479 4 121
136,015 121 651
188,131 -6,316
Net Absorption – YTD (SF)
375,909 287 855
448,970 52 5 5
224,194 330 92
Leasing Activity – Current Qtr. (SF)
132,211 4 ,632
224,776 32,598
224,194 10 ,3 6
Leasing Activity – YTD (SF)
82,787 568,430
324,146 1,107 982
188,131 1,075, 84
RENTAL RATE VS. VACANCY RATE
LEASING ACTIVITY VS. ABSORPTION LEASING ACTIVITY VS. ABSORPTION
(150,000) (50,000) 50,000 150,000 250,000 350,000 , 2 4 650,00 8
7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% .5 10.0% 11.5% 13.0% 14.5%
$8.00 $9.50 $11.00 $12.50 $14.00 $14.00
Direct Gross Rental Rate
Overall Rental Rate (NNN)
Leasing Activity Net Absorption
Direct Vacancy
Overall Vacancy
INDUSTRIAL 2Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT NORTH DENVER 4
KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Q2 2023 KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Q4 2023
SIZE
DATE LEASED DATE LEASED
PROPERTY
TENANT
TYPE
LEASE TYPE LEASE TYPE
CARA STAMP Research Manager Tel: +1 303 218 3258 cara.stamp@cushwake.com MINH NGO Research Analyst Tel: +1 303 312 4293 Minh.ngo@cushwake.com ETHA WESLAR 720 560 8 70 ethan.weslar@cushwake.com
(SF)
PROPERTY
TENANT
SIZE (SF)
TYPE
Apr-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Apr-23 Dec-23 Apr-23
Allegro Coffee Company Undisclosed
12777 Claude Court Park 12 Hundred - Building 1
25,000
Renewal Renewal New Lease
Direct Direct Direct Direct Direct Direct
138,200
North Washington Commerce Center - Bldg. B Park Centre - Paragon
Undisclosed
6,300
Frito-Lay
75,700
New
25 North – Bldg. 5 3656 Stagecoach Road
Vivacity Tech PBC Brian Wirtz
1,200
New Lease
38,800
New
May-23 KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS YTD 2023 DATE SOLD PROPERTY BUYER / SELLER North Washington Commerce Center - Bldg. Santa Monica Seafood
33,300
New
Direct
SIZE
SALE
PRICE/SF
(SF)
PRICE
555 West 112 th Avenue
Aug-23
Crow Holdings / North Express LLC
65,400
$11.0M
$168/SF
Glacier Business Park
5035 Chaparral LLC / Associated Building Specialties
14,700
$2.7M
$183/SF
Nov-23
PROPERTY 25 North – Bldgs. 6-8 KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS EverWest Real Estate Investors 288,000 KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Dec-23 250 Perry Lane OWNER / DEVELOPER SIZE (SF)
Summit Creek Investments / Smith Environmental & Engineering
9,800
$2.3M
$237/SF
MAJOR TENANTS
EST. COMPLETION
Ferguson Enterprises
Jan-24
SIZE (SF)
Connect 25 – Bldgs. 1-4 PROPERTY
OWNER / DEVELOPER
MAJOR TENANTS
EST. COMPLETION
SunCap JV GID
462,700
N/A
Jul-23
5280 Logistics Park - Target BTS
523,900
Hillwood
Target
Mar-25
25 Commerce Park – Bldgs. 1-3
Confluent Development
454,600
N/A
Jul-24
A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 50,000employees in over 400 offices and approximately 60 countries. In 2021, the firm had revenue of $9.4 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter. ©2023 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
Innovate 25 – Bldgs. 1A-3A
Brennan investment Group 300,500
N/A
Oct-24
HISTORICAL LEASING ACTIVITY HISTORICAL LEASING ACTIVITY 700,000
1,200,000
600,000
1,000,000
500,000
8 ,000
400,000
300,000
6 ,000
200,000
400,000
100,000
cushmanwakefield.com
200,000
0
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
AIRPORT INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT
KEY TAKEAWAYS Leasing activity recovered in Q4 2023, recording 1.1 msf (million square feet) in leasing volume, up from just 227,000 in Q3 2023. With a vast supply of industrial-zoned land and proximity to I-70 & Denver International Airport, activity within the submarket will likely continue to pace the Denver Metro area through 2024. Net absorption figures also experienced a quarterly increase, jumping to 1.5 msf, a 102.9% improvement QOQ. Home Depot and Dollar General’s build-to-suit completions accounted for 1.4 msf of the Airport submarket’s positive absorption while build-out delays and material shortages continued to lead to deferred move-ins. The Airport submarket continued to dominate construction completions in Q4 2023, with 5 buildings totaling 2.2 msf delivering, 64% pre-leased. Additionally, 2.8 msf remains under construction, most notably is Pepsi’s build-to-suit for 1.2 msf. With changing economic conditions, the submarket may begin to see a further decline in speculative development in 2024. Average asking rates in the Airport submarket experienced a slight contraction across all product types in Q4 2023, falling 3.1% to $6.83 NNN. With vacancy in buildings greater than 100,000 square feet reaching nearly 8.9%, decreased leasing activity from larger tenants and higher operating costs has created downward pressure on the submarket’s average rental rates.
4Q23 LEASING & ABSORPTION
338,500 4Q23 LARGEST LEASE 78,900 4Q23 LARGEST MOVE-OUT
1,537,400 4Q23 ABSORPTION 1,055,100 4Q23 LEASING ACTIVITY
2023 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY LARGEST SALES TRANSACTION TOTAL SALES TRANSACTION
ASKING RENTS AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $6.83 (ALL TYPES)
AVERAGE CAP RATE
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
Q4 2023
QOQ CHANGE
AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $6.48 ( W/D ) AVG. DIRECT NNN RENTS $13.04 (FLEX)
UNDER CONSTRUCTION 2,785,900 SF
DIRECT VACANCY (ALL CLASSES)
7.7%
80 bps
8.0%
70 bps
VACANCY (W/D)
PROPOSED INDUSTRIAL 6,670,800 SF*
3.2%
NO CHANGE
VACANCY (FLEX)
SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY
825.4 KSF
115.1 ksf
*buildings estimated to deliver in the next 5 years
AIRPORT INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT
AIRPORT MARKET
4Q 2023
3Q 2023
4Q 2022
Inventory (SF)
77,723,894
82,176,468
79,429,076
Under Construction (SF)
2,785,920
5,023,550
4,334,745
Direct Vacancy (all product types)
7.3%
7.7%
6.9%
Direct Vacancy – Warehouse/ Distribution
7.6%
8.0%
7.3%
Direct Vacancy – Flex
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
Sublease Availability
684,369
825,406
710,354
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate (all product types)
$6.86
$6.83
$7.05
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate – Warehouse/Distribution
$6.77
$6.48
$6.77
Avg. Direct NNN Asking Rate – Flex
$9.80
$13.04
$11.90
Net Absorption – Current Qtr. (SF)
354,932
1,537,386
757,654
Net Absorption – YTD (SF)
3,178,624
3,222,993
1,685,607
Leasing Activity – Current Qtr. (SF)
938,305
1,055,127
226,428
Leasing Activity – YTD (SF)
5,933,069
4,379,725
3,324,598
RENTAL RATE VS. VACANCY RATE
LEASING ACTIVITY VS. ABSORPTION
3,500,000
$5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00
4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
2,500,000
1,500,000
500,000
(500,000)
Direct Rental Rate (NNN)
Overall Rental Rate (NNN)
Leasing Activity Net Absorption
Direct Vacancy
Overall Vacancy
AIRPORT INDUSTRIAL 4Q23 SUBMARKET SNAPSHOT
KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Q4 2023
SIZE (SF)
DATE LEASED
PROPERTY
TENANT
DEAL TYPE LEASE TYPE
CARA STAMP Research Manager Tel: +1 303 218 3258 cara.stamp@cushwake.com ETHAN WESLAR Research Analyst Tel: +1 720 560 8970 ethan.weslar@cushwake.com
Dec-23
Discount Tire
338,500
Central Park Logistics Center – Bldg. 2
Direct
New
Nov-23
Victory Packaging
200,000
Majestic Commercenter – Bldg. 3
Direct
Renewal
Nov-23
Marcone Group
155,900
Central Park Logistics Center – Bldg. 2
Direct
New
KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS YTD 2023
DATE SOLD
PROPERTY
BUYER / SELLER
SIZE
SALE
PRICE/SF
(SF)
PRICE
Jan-23
Fedex BTS – 5805 N. Jackson Gap Street
Stonemont Financial / Scannell
482,700 $72,000,000
$150/SF
Aug-23
Crescent Electric / Scout Cold
170,500 $26,500,000
Nexus at DIA – Bldg. D
$155/SF
KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
SIZE (SF)
MAJOR TENANTS
EST. COMPLETION
PROPERTY
OWNER
Pepsi
1,200,000
Pepsi
Apr-24
Pepsi Bottling BTS
Opus
826,300
N/A
March-24
Sun Empire – Bldgs. A & B
Hines
759,000
N/A
February-24
Denali Logistics Park – Bldgs. 1-3
A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 50,000employees in over 400 offices and approximately 60 countries. In 2021, the firm had revenue of $9.4 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter. ©2023 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
HISTORICAL LEASING ACTIVITY
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000
cushmanwakefield.com
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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