Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop

vacancy and an expense ratio for each market and year from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF). The initial NOIs are only for office, retail, multifamily and industrial products for which we had these expense ratios. We calculated valuation based on NOI and cap rates (from MSCI Real Capital Analytics) based on market and year. Once this task was complete, we developed a price per square foot (PPSF) for office, retail, multifamily and industrial. We calculated valuations for the following products based on different averages: » Hotel valuations were sourced from CoStar .

composite average of office, retail and multifamily. Based on Cushman & Wakefield subject matter expert interviews, we adjusted these figures to indicate the high expense ratios and higher cap rates for these types of products. We adjusted our figure for sports and entertainment down by 40% to account for these dynamics.

Real GDP To estimate GDP, we relied on census block level data from the U.S. Census Bureau / U.S. Department of Commerce’s LODES database, which provides employment for 20 NAICS industry classifications. We ascribed a value-added per employee ratio (productivity) to each employee based on national industry-specific figures from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) make-use tables. This enabled us to estimate total productivity aggregated at each census block and for counties as a whole. We converted these value-added estimates into each census block’s share of their county. Using annual real county-based GDP figures from U.S. BEA, we then down-assigned county GDP to census blocks using those shares. This enabled aggregation at the city and WalkUP level.

GSA and owner-occupied products used the same office PPSF for each WalkUP, city and year. For education, we used an average of office and multifamily products to reflect the blend of education uses—being a combination of office and office-like uses—and residential (dorms) that reflect the multifamily dynamic. For-sale housing valuations were direct from CoreLogic at the WalkUP level. For all city, we relied on PPSF data from Redfin for each market and year. Sports and entertainment used a

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Reimagining Cities: Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop 93