Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop

CONCLUSIONS

1

Doom Loops and Virtuous Spirals are inherent in the evolving trends of our cities and metropolitan areas over time. A structural doom loop is caused by a fundamental change in demand for the form of the built environment (e.g., pent up demand for Drivable Sub-urban with reduced demand for Walkable Urban, as in the mid to late 20th century in the U.S.) or large structural shifts that can lead to the collapse of a major economic pillar of the local economy (e.g., the near disappearance of the steel industry in Pittsburgh, starting in the 1970s). Turning around a structural doom loop is a decades-long task, and often requires a change in demand or creating new economic sectors for future economic development. An episodic doom loop is triggered by acute economic shocks like recessions, public health crises, natural disasters, or political and civil unrest. These negative shocks can be reversed by either massive and quick public sector investment like New Orleans post-Katrina, or by equally massive and quick private sector investment like Downtown Detroit in the early 21st century. The payoff is a self-sustaining Virtuous Spiral of economic development that reinforces different elements of the built environment. For example, sports and entertainment venues ultimately increase demand for nearby parking in existing office parking structures, which bolsters office building valuations and results in increased property taxes that can be used for reinvestment and enhanced social services. In WalkUPs experiencing a Virtuous Spiral, for every one investment decision, there should be two or more positive economic outcomes as is the case when building more residential increases demand for local-serving retail like grocery, drug, and hardware stores. This synergy increases neighborhood valuations and increases local property taxes which, in turn, enables local government investment in services and social support.

2 Making the “right thing to do

easy” works. The case study for the Detroit Downtown turnaround offers important wisdom. The turnaround picked up momentum around 2000 with GM’s headquarters relocation to Downtown, and other developments like Little Caesars’ Arena and The District Detroit. It continued its rapid pace when Rock Ventures (subsidiary of Rocket Mortgage) relocated Rocket Mortgage’s headquarters Downtown, buying over 100 buildings for the company’s and many other tenants’ usage. The company’s investment of over $1 billion of private funds could be deployed rapidly in a highly distressed local real estate market, which eased parcel assembly and local willingness to allow redevelopment. Cooperation with local government and private-public partnerships was critical, especially in establishing conditions that enabled swift development. Today, Rock Ventures is the largest taxpayer in the city. This case study underscores the need for considering certain zoning and permitting reforms—if cities “make the right thing easy,” the private sector will speed up the turnaround process dramatically.

Reimagining Cities: Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop 79