Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop

HOMELESSNESS People experiencing homelessness tend to migrate and cluster in urban areas, partly due to the access to essential services, shelters and public spaces. However, homelessness is difficult to measure. One estimate shows that 71% of the homeless population is found in central cities, compared to 21% in suburban areas and 9% in rural regions. 95 To track homelessness statistics, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) requires that every metropolitan area take yearly point-in-time (PIT) counts, usually in mid-February. This is a poorly controlled survey technique that is not statistically reliable, but it is the only data collection tool currently available. 96 This unique spatial distribution of PIT counts complicates the measurement of homelessness since traditional demographic information is usually aggregated by fixed geographic units like the census block group, census tract and city level, while the homeless population is highly mobile. In our 15 sample cities, those with more expensive housing markets—Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco and Washington, DC—report higher rates of homelessness per 100,000 people. This is consistent with research showing that the cost of living is a primary driver of homelessness in the U.S. 97 A 2023 survey in San Francisco revealed that 90% of respondents who became homeless indicated they had previously lived in a residence in the city and were displaced due to rising costs. 98 However, housing costs aren’t the only issue. For example, Philadelphia has a slightly less expensive housing market than the cities referenced above, but the city has high levels of drug use, which also contributes to homelessness. Mental illness is estimated to be the cause of roughly 30% of homelessness cases. 99

The proportion of homelessness in WalkUPs is higher in these more expensive cities, with Boston, New York City and San Francisco each having more concentrated homelessness in their WalkUPs than the other sample cities. However, across the board, there are more people experiencing homelessness outside of WalkUPs than within them, given that WalkUPs occupy just 3% of the total city land area. According to data from HUD’s 2022 Homelessness Annual report, Downtown Adjacent and Urban Commercial areas within the 15 cities studied typically had the highest number of homeless individuals on any given night. Surprisingly, Downtown areas in most of these cities do not have the highest homelessness counts. This could be attributed to recent patterns of municipal policing and policy enforcement. Further, because PIT counts are taken in the evening, they are often influenced by the locations of shelters, which are frequently situated outside Downtowns, and even outside of WalkUPs. Notable exceptions include Austin and Washington, DC, where most of the homeless population within WalkUPs was concentrated in the Downtown area. Forced clearings of homeless encampments has always occurred but has intensified since 2022, largely driven by growing concerns from residents and local government officials about the importance of outdoor public space. 100 Public parks, which were previously hotspots of homeless settlements, have been recognized to be vital to the public realm and the revitalization of Downtowns. As a result, many of these spaces have been cleared to return to broader public use. Homelessness is a complex social issue with no easy solution, and it is not solely a city issue. People experiencing homelessness are present everywhere, so addressing the issue requires a wide-ranging, sustained and well-funded effort from all levels of

95 Chapter 13 Comparing Homeless Clients from Central City, Suburban, and Rural Areas Highlights: Homeless Clients by Urban/Rural Location. 96 Point-in-Time Count and Housing Inventory Count. Department of Housing and Urban Development. What is a Continuum of Care? HUD Exchange. 97 Heston, Thomas F. “The Cost of Living Index as a Primary Driver of Homelessness in the United States: A Cross-State Analysis.” Cureus via the National Library of Medicine, 2023. 98 Colliver, Victoria. “California Statewide Study Investigates Causes and Impacts of Homelessness.” University of California San Francisco. June 2023. 99 Housing First: A Review of the Evidence | HUD USER.” 2023. Huduser.gov. 2023. 100 Much of the evidence is anecdotal, though it is likely that policies Gavin Newsom’s executive order mandating encampment clearings in 2024 will become more common over the coming years. Cohen, Rachel M. “Homeless encampments – and the debate over what to do about them – explained.” Vox, 2023.

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