Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop

Virtuous Spirals Agglomeration theory—the geographic concentration of economic, social, cultural, sports and residential activity—is the catalyst that triggers a WalkUP virtuous spiral. It occurs because firms, workers, residents and visitors benefit from being close to one another. 29 However, the combination of virtual meeting technologies and the expectation for work location flexibility among North American office workers 30 may have undermined some benefits of professional knowledge spillovers that result from agglomeration. It’s worth noting that businesses continue to commit to office space in cities, even as overall footprints are shrinking. Cushman & Wakefield data indicates that 40% of Class A office leasing in the first half of 2024 occurred in CBDs, which is in line with the 2017-2019 average of 42%. All of this points to the continued importance of office space in a city’s life and GDP generation. However, for WalkUPs, it is crucial to have a diverse product mix of property types that do not overemphasize any single type.

loop. For example, the King of Prussia Mall outside Philadelphia has continually invested in expansion to become the largest mall on the East Coast. It exemplifies the approach of making the same basic product, just made “bigger and better.” Ultimately, a doom loop occurs when both (1) market share and (2) relative real estate valuation PPSF is declining. Walkable Urban places in the late 20th century would have had to double their market share growth just to maintain its mid-20th century market share. During the same time period, Drivable Sub-urban locations were growing two to three times faster than their mid-20th century market share. The early 21st century has witnessed Walkable Urban market share growing two to three times faster than their 2000 market share. While in some metropolitan areas, Drivable Sub-urban market share growth, especially for regional malls and office parks, has been in decline; these places would have had to grow twice as fast just to maintain their year 2000 market share.

EARLY 21ST CENTURY

LATE 20TH CENTURY

would have had to

growing 2-3X than their 2000 market share

2X

MARKET SHARE GROWTH

FASTER

to maintain its mid-20th century market share.

WALKABLE URBAN

growing 2-3X than their mid-20th century market share

would have had to grown

2X

FASTER

AS FAST

DRIVABLE SUB-URBAN

to maintain their year 2000 market share

29 Zouaoui, Amira Manel, Hichem Zitoune, and Meriem Chabou. “The Critical Mass: A Trigger Parameter for Cultural and Creative Cluster Strategies in Metropolises.” 3rd International Conference of Contemporary Affairs in Architecture and Urbanism. May 2020. 30 Cushman & Wakefield Experience Per Square Foot TM

20 Cushman & Wakefield