Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop

15 U.S. CITIES USED IN THIS REPORT

Seattle

Boston

New York Philadelphia

Washington, DC

Chicago

Denver

San Francisco

Raleigh

Los Angeles

Phoenix

Atlanta

Dallas

Austin

Miami

development, otherwise known as suburban 7 sprawl, a 20th century American invention. New, drivable suburbs had pent-up demand in the post-World War II era through to the end of the 20th century. This type of development relied exclusively on cars and trucks, using new freeways and major roads to connect cities with burgeoning suburbs, and later, beltways to link suburbs to other suburbs. Americans moved out of cities in droves, drawn by the allure of new cars, homes and their own piece of the American dream. This trend reflects the adage that “transportation drives development.” Unexpectedly, the late 1990s and early 21st century brought a rebirth in market demand for the opposite of Drivable Sub-urbanism: “Walkable Urbanism,” which plays to the inherent strength of cities. 8 From 2000 2020, the population of these 15 cities reversed their 50-year declines, increasing their 18% share of metro area population in 2000 to 21% by the end of 2019. In other words, the marginal rate of population growth in these cities grew 16 times their

2000 market share, while their surrounding suburbs rate of growth declined. Hence the “return of the city” development trend. Besides population, there are other ways to measure Walkable Urban pent-up demand. A related research report by Places Platform, LLC & Smart Growth America, Foot Traffic Ahead 2023 , focused on the 35 largest U.S. metropolitan areas and showed that by the end of 2021, home prices in Walkable Urban areas were 40% higher per square foot (psf) than those in Drivable Sub-urban areas, and multifamily rental premiums were 45% higher. 9 Walkable Urban multifamily rental housing had been gaining market share at twice the rate it did in 2018, indicating that the market share for Drivable Sub-urban rental housing was falling.

The Pandemic and Rising Fears of a Doom Loop

The pandemic and subsequent lockdowns appeared to interrupt the trend of people moving to cities, first due to fears that

7 “Suburban” refers to the metropolitan land mass outside the boundaries of the central city. In the metropolitan areas of the 15 cities under study in 2023, 80.2% of the population is in the suburbs and 19.8% live in their cities. 8 Walkable Urban and Drivable Sub-urban are binomial in nature in that these are non-overlapping and mutually exclusive. 9 Rodriguez, Michael and Christopher Leinberger. Foot Traffic Ahead 2023. Smart Growth America. (16)

10 Cushman & Wakefield