Q4-2018 B Erhardt Tampa Bay Area Land

Quarterly Report Q4 - 2018

TAMPA BAY MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW AxioMetrics, Inc. Market Performance Summary, Q4-2018, Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area Apartment Performance

Erhardt Comment: For the first time we have a suburban Pasco County project averaging $1.50 a square foot in the Altman’s Altis Wiregrass Ranch property.

Effective rent decreased -0.4% from $1,185 in 3Q18 to $1,180 in 4Q18, which resulted in an annual growth rate of 4.4%. The market’s annual rent growth rate was above the national average of 2.5%. In addition, the market’s five-year average of 4.4% puts the market fifth among top 50 U.S. Metros, tied with San Jose, CA. Annual effective rent growth is forecast to be 4.0% in 2019, and average 2.5% from 2020 to 2022. Annual effective rent growth has averaged 2.7% since 3Q96. Going forward, rent growth is likely to remain solid in the coming years.

The market’s occupancy rate decreased from 96.1% in 3Q18 to 95.5% in 4Q18, and was up slightly from 95.3% a year ago. For the forecast period, the market’s occupancy rate is expected to be 94.7% in 2019, and average 94.0% from 2020 to 2022. The market’s occupancy rate has averaged 94.0% since 3Q95.

Market Survey Results and Forecasts

Sequential Annual 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Dec-18 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Month

Effective Rent Per Unit

$1,128 $1,135 $1,164 $1,185 $1,180 $1,180 $1,109 $1,140 $1,180 $1,228 $1,255 $1,284 $1,323

Per Sq. Ft

$1.21

$1.21

$1.24 $1.27 $1.26 $1.26 $1.17 $1.20 $1.26 $1.31

$1.34 $1.37 $1.42

Effective Rent Growth - Annually Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly

3.1% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 2.8% 4.4% 4.0% 2.8% 1.9% 2.9%

-0.1% 0.7% 2.5% 1.8% -0.4% -0.4%

Occupancy Rate

95.3% 95.5% 95.9% 96.1% 95.5% 95.5% 95.3% 95.0% 95.5% 94.7% 94.0% 94.1% 93.9%

Occupancy Change - Annually Occupancy Change - Quarterly Economic Concessions Concession Value

0.3% 0.4% 0.7%

-0.2% -0.3% 0.5% -0.8% -0.7% 0.1% -0.2%

-0.2% 0.2% 0.4% -0.1% -0.70% -0.70%

$35.00 $41.00 $29.00 $26.00 $46.00 $46.00 $31.00 $35.00 $46.00

As a % of Asking Rent

3.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.2% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.9%

Demand and Supply The Tampa Bay economy accelerated over the past year, adding +23,500 jobs for an annual growth rate of 1.7%. As of November 2018, the unemployment rate in Tampa/Hillsborough County, Pinellas County, and Polk County fell by -70 bps, -60 bps, XX bps 2.9%, 2.9%, and X.X%, respectively. Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.8% in 2019, with 25,000 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 0.8% from 2020 to 2022, with an average of 11,000 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for over 17,800 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in October 2018, down approximately -7,100 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, over 52,000 units were permitted in the 12 months ending October 2018, an increase of approximately 6,000 units from the prior year’s total.

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