Q1-2017 B Erhardt Tampa Bay Area Land Quarterly Report

Erhardt’s Tampa Bay Land Market Overview | Quarterly Report Q1 - 2017

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TAMPA BAY MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW AxioMetrics, Inc. Market Performance Summary, Q3-2016, Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area Apartment Performance • Effective rent increased 1.5% from $1,110 in Q2-2016 to $1,126 in Q3-2016, which resulted in an annual growth rate of 5.6%. Annual effective rent growth is forecast to be 3.3% in 2017, and average 3.1% from 2018 to 2020. Annual effective rent growth has averaged 2.6% since Q3-1996.

• The market’s occupancy rate decreased from 95.5% in Q2-2016 to 95.4% in Q3-2016, and was down from 95.7% a year ago. The market’s occupancy rate was above the national average of 95.1% in Q3-2016. For the forecast period, the market’s occupancy rate is expected to be 95.0% in 2017, and average 95.0% from 2018 to 2020. The market’s occupancy rate has averaged 93.9% since Q3-1995.

Sequential Annual 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 FEB-17 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Month

Effective Rent Per Unit

$1,075

$1,100 $1,116

$1,109 $1,110 $981

$1,041

$1,100 $1,138 $1,166 $1,202 $1,248

Per Square Foot

$1.14

$1.17

$1.19

$1.18

$1.18 $1.04 $1.11

$1.17 $1.21

$1.24 $1.28 $1.33

Effective Rent Growth – Annually Effective Rent Growth – Quarterly Occupancy Change – Annually Occupancy Change – Quarterly Economic Concessions Concession Value As a % of Asking Rent Occupancy Rate

6.6% 6.5% 5.7% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 6.1% 5.7% 3.4% 2.5% 3.2% 3.8%

0.9% 2.3% 1.5% -0.7%

95.5% 95.5% 95.4% 94.7% 94.8% 94.8% 95.4% 95.3% 94.8% 94.6% 95.0% 95.3% 0.4% 0.0% -0.3% -0.9% -0.6% 0.6% 0.7% -0.2% -0.5% -0.2% 0.4% 0.3%

-0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1%

$-4.54 $-3.60 $-3.25

$-6.45 $-6.20 $-8.64 $-3.74

-0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6% -0.6% -0.9% -0.4%

Demand and Supply • Axiometrics forecasts Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater, Florida Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.4% in 2017, with 30,538 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 2.1% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 27,830 jobs added each year. • On the supply side, permits for 5,526 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in September 2016, down 518 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 16,646 units were permitted in the 12 months ending September 2016, an increase of 1,363 units from the prior year’s total.

Annual

Q3-2016

Annual Forecast

2013 3,652 3,717

2014 2015 MARKET NATIONAL 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Total Units Absorbed

6,670 5,634

1,738 4,704

263,077 347,761

1,738 4,704

5,464 5,416

3,517 4,746

5,461 4,026

4,047 3,204

New Supply

4,012

3,987

Inventory Growth

1.2%

1.3% 1.3%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.7% 1.5%

1.2%

1.0%

Submarket Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Lease Up Trent

Sequential

Units Absorbed

Asking Rent

Effective Rent

Top Submarkets

2014 2015 2016 TOTAL TOTALS PPM PER UNIT PSF PER UNIT PSF

Central St. Petersburg

375

260 768

474 822 278 396 250

1,109 2,796

273 695 286 301 242

16 12 15 14 17

$2,248 $1,867 $1,551 $1,306 $1,435

$2.31 $1.96 $1.44 $1.22 $1.43

$2,206 $1,785 $1,499 $1,301 $1,425

$2.26 $1.88 $1.39 $1.22 $1.42

Central Tampa

1,206

North St. Petersburg

651 421

929

Pasco County

419 260

1,236

South Hillsborough County

510

Other

1,544 4,197

1,836 3,543

932

4,312

843

12 13

$1,318 $1,596

$1.37 $1.63

$1,275 $1,548

$1.33 $1.58

Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater, FL *Based on 2016 deliveries

3,152

10,892

2,640

9

*Trend Based on trailing 12 month period