Part 1: Return to the Office Series - Predicting the Return to the Office

GLOBAL AMERICAS APAC EMEA

Government guidelines will also play a critical role in boosting worker confidence and encouraging a return to the office. According to Oxford University, government stringency still varies substantially with locations like New Zealand and Canada currently with high levels of restrictions, while the UK, South Korea and the Netherlands are considerably more open. 3

In our study, if our assumptions hold true, we conclude that most office workers globally will be able to return to the office in the first quarter of 2022. Regionally, the return will be led by Greater China, followed by Europe, then the U.S., Canada and finally the Asia Pacific region. Again, timing will vary within countries.

FEBRUARY 2022 TRACKING AS INFLECTION POINT Worldwide

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Herd resiliency > 70%

Virus down to low levels

0 10

Apr-21

May-21

Jun-21

Jul-21

Aug-21

Sep-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22 Feb-22

New Infections (Avg. Weekly Cases)

Herd Resiliency (% Vaccinated or Infected), rhs

Source: IHME; Our World in Data; World Bank; Moody’s Analytics

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