Part 1: Return to the Office Series - Predicting the Return to the Office


At the current rate, most of the world will achieve herd resiliency—i.e., over 70% either vaccinated or infected—by Q2 2022. Herd resiliency will be achieved first in Canada (Q3 2021), followed by the U.S., Europe and China all in Q4 2021. The rest of Asia Pacific will vary by country, but as a region overall, it is likely to lag behind by a quarter or two (Q1 or Q2 2022). Given the impact on working parents, in-person school is a critical factor for predicting a fuller return to the office. In the U.S., for example, just over 24 million households have at least one child under the age of 12, which accounts for about 20% of the workforce.

VACCINE TRACKER & FORECAST Percentage of Population Fully Vaccinated, Actual & Forecast

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

20Q3 20Q4 21Q1

21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1

22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1



World forecast


U.S. forecast


China forecast


EU forecast

Source: Our World in Data; World Bank; Moody’s Analytics


Made with FlippingBook flipbook maker