Part 1: Return to the Office Series - Predicting the Return to the Office

EUROPE

VACCINE UPDATE: As of September 7, 2021, almost 50% of all people across Europe had been fully vaccinated. In the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, full vaccination exceeds 60%. 23 An additional 10% have been partially vaccinated. Further, many European countries are offering the vaccination to children under 18 to increase the take up, and there are ongoing discussions about rolling out the vaccine to those between 12 and 15. 24 RETURN TO THE OFFICE FORECAST: As noted in the U.S. commentary, there has perhaps been a false assumption that offices were fully occupied prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In truth, people had been working flexibly to varying degrees across different European countries for some time—estimates align around 60% of ‘desk usage’ at any given time. We do expect employee occupancy to continue to trend upwards from its current point as employees return as part of new hybrid working patterns. And barring a severe spike in cases we will continue to see increased numbers returning throughout the fall season and likely through the end of the year. Best guess: January 2022 – The majority of companies in Europe have indicated September or October for a concerted move back to in-office working. Those that have taken a longer view have cited January 2022 as the targeted timing. This will vary by country based on continued growth in vaccination levels, opportunity to take a third booster vaccine and by industry mix. Occupiers in the finance, banking and law sectors are more likely to be returning throughout the remainder of 2021, while technology firms (at a very generalized level) are delaying until January 2022.

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